东北区玉米生产对气候变化的响应与适应

Under climate change, the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security have become increasingly prominent. However, the mainly reasons caused these effects are the changes in the agro-climatic resources. Therefore, it is critical to understand the response and adaptation of China's agricultural production to climate change for rational development and effective use of climate resources. Faced national food security, around the scientific frontier and domestic demand of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, aimed the core scientific issues of corn production response and adaptation to climate change, Northeast region of China which is the most significantly affected by climate change is selected as the study area, where grain production is most important. A combination method of field research and indoor simulation is applied. The observational data of corn growth and development in northeast region of China, the historical meteorological observed and the future regional climate model products are used. Then, the spatial and temporal distributions of agro-climatic resources during recent 30 years in northeast region of China are systematically analyzed. The responses of corn growth and development to climate change are quantitatively investigated. Finally, the distribution characteristics and evolution trends of agricultural climate resource in the next 30 years in northeast region of China are predicted and assessed. The contributions of agricultural adaptation measures to agricultural climate resource utilization in the next 30 years in northeast region of China are further evaluated. The corn production potentials in northeast region of China under future climate change scenarios are explored, providing scientific basis for the sustainable development of corn production in northeast region of China under climate change.

气候变化对中国农业生产和粮食安全的影响日益突出,而产生这些影响的根本原因是农业气候资源的变化。因此，了解气候变化下我国农业生产的响应及未来适应是合理开发和高效利用气候资源的重要前提和基础。本项目面向国家粮食安全，围绕气候变化对农业影响的科学前沿与国家需求，针对玉米生产对气候变化的响应和适应这一核心科学问题，选取我国受气候变化影响最为显著、粮食生产最为重要的东北区为研究区域，采用野外调研和室内模拟相结合的方法，利用东北玉米生长发育观测资料、历史气象观测资料和区域气候模式产品资料，系统研究近30年东北区域农业气候资源的时空分布和变化情况以及玉米生长发育对气候变化的响应情况；定量评估东北地区未来30年农业气候资源分布特征和演变趋势及农业适应措施对农业气候资源利用率的贡献，探讨未来气候变化情景下东北玉米生产的发展潜力，为气候变暖影响下的东北区玉米可持续发展提供科学依据。

气候变化对中国农业生产和粮食安全的影响日益突出,而产生这些影响的根本原因是农业气候资源的变化。因此，了解气候变化下我国农业生产的响应及未来适应是合理开发和高效利用气候资源的重要前提和基础。本项目选取我国受气候变化影响最为显著、粮食生产最为重要的东北区为研究区域，系统研究了近50年东北区域农业气候资源的时空分布和变化情况以及玉米生长发育对气候变化的响应情况；定量评估了东北地区未来90年农业气候资源分布特征和演变趋势及农业适应措施对农业气候资源利用率的贡献。结果表明：(1)1961-2099期间，在气候变化的影响下，热量资源明显增加，年平均温度呈升高趋势，低排放模式和高排放模式分别升温约2℃、3℃，≥10℃初日早3-4d，初霜日晚2-6d，导致可能生长季增加4-10d；温度的升高与生长季的延长使得积温大幅增加，到本世纪末，增幅达400、700℃•d。水资源波动明显。（2）近30年来，玉米发育期变化对气象条件的突变响应敏感，关键发育期间隔与其最优气象因子之间以线性相关关系为主，气象产量与最优气象因子之间普遍存在着非线性关系。东北平原的春玉米种植品种对气候变化的响应速度较快，种植品种表现的实际熟型与理论熟型相同或比其高出一个等级，潜在熟型往往比理论熟型高出1~2个等级。（3）未来随着气候变暖，玉米可种植区将北移东扩，品种逐渐向晚熟过渡。通过布局调整，玉米气候生产潜力在RCP4.5情景下比当前增加约204.62 kg/hm2，玉米推迟30-40天播种时气候生产潜力最大，RCP8.5情景下比当前减少约1082.37 kg/hm2，推迟播种期对生产潜力的影响地区间不一致。耐高温和干旱的抗逆品种均有利于提高玉米气候生产潜力。（4）1961-2099期间，当前玉米的气候资源利用率为最高，未来东北地区气候资源利用率总体表现为RCP4.5情景高于RCP8.5情景。在抗逆品种中，耐干旱的品种比耐高温品种更有效。研究结果对东北地区农业生产适应未来气候变化具有理论意义。.项目培养博士生1名（已完成毕业论文，2018年毕业）和硕士生2名。