云南少数民族贫困地区生态文明建设的关键因素和有效路径研究

The ecology civilization construction is now in progress all over China, and it must be more difficult to implement determined by the particularity in poor areas of Yunnan Minority. There areas were carried out in-depth research. Factor Analysis and other methods were used to design the evaluation index for the ecology civilization construction in such areas. A dynamic fuzzy evaluation model was built through the optimization of the index to research the level of ecological civilization construction in the Poor minority areas. Artificial Neural Network was used to build the model to identify the key factors of ecological civilization construction according to the complexity, systemic and non-linear of the ecological civilization construction. Structural equation model was used to analysis of relationship between factors based on the dimensions of ecological civilization construction promotion and restraint mutually. And DEMATEL method was used to explore the main problem in the ecological civilization construction from the ecological consciousness civilization, ecological behavior civilization, ecological system civilization, and other aspects. For the cause of the problem, select the effective path for the ecology civilization construction in such the Poor minority areas based on Path analysis model. Implementation strategy of the effective path was proposed from the actual of the poor areas of Yunnan minority. This project presents valuable outcomes for the national ecological civilization construction of China, proposes viable strategy Ecological civilization construction in Yunnan Province and Provides realistic data support for the research on the subject of ecological civilization.

生态文明建设正在全国如火如荼进行，云南少数民族贫困地区的特殊性，决定了生态文明建设更为艰难。项目选择云南少数民族贫困地区深入调研，运用因子分析等方法，设计少数民族贫困地区生态文明建设评价指标，通过指标的优化，建立动态模糊评价模型，研究少数民族贫困地区的生态文明建设水平。根据生态文明建设的复杂性、系统性和非线形性，运用人工神经网络法构建识别生态文明建设的关键因素模型。基于生态文明建设各维度相互促进、相互制约原因，运用结构方程模型分析因子间关系。从生态意识文明、生态行为文明、生态制度文明等层面运用DEMATEL方法对生态文明建设存在的主要问题进行探究，针对产生问题的原因，依据路径分析模型，选择少数民族贫困地区生态文明建设有效路径。从云南少数民族贫困地区实际出发，提出有效路径实施方略。项目研究为全国生态文明建设提供宝贵成果，为云南省生态文明建设提出可行之策，为生态文明学科研究提供现实数据支撑。

建设生态文明是中华民族永续发展的千年大计。少数民族贫困地区的特殊性，决定了生态文明建设重点和难点的不同。研究在深入少数民族贫困地区进行田野调查的基础上，按照研究设计方案，重点对8个少数民族贫困地区进行数据收集。选择少数民族贫困地区生态效率评价指标体系，运用Super-SBM模型和Malmquist指数，对少数民族贫困地区生态效率进行测算和动态分解，并构建Tobit模型分析影响生态效率因素。应用系统耦合理论，从协调性和组合发展两个视角分析少数民族贫困地区人口迁移与经济增长的关系特征，对耦合度进行测定。以人口流入、流出和人口流入流出比构建人口迁移指标，以经济增长的总量、质量和效率三个角度构建经济增长指标，结合熵权法进行权重系数计算，对少数民族贫困地区人口迁移与经济增长耦合程度的演进规律进行实证研究。通过对问卷的信度和效度检验，运用主成分分析法和方差最大旋转法进行探索性因子分析处理问卷数据，分别从生态文明意识、生态文明行为和生态文明制度三个维度提取公因子并归纳命名，从微观层面上得出生态文明建设的影响因素体系。构建云南少数民族贫困地区生态文明建设体系，运用BP-DEMATEL方法计算出生态文明建设指标的中心度和原因度，改进了传统DEMATEL方法中专家打分具有主观性的问题。再结合摆幅置权法赋权后计算出综合重要度的大小，定量化地确定了生态文明建设的关键因素，提升了研究方法的科学性。在确定生态文明建设目标基础上，运用多主体建模仿真法中的BDI模型，分别对政府、企业、公众三个生态文明建设主体的信念、愿望、意图进行分析，构建生态文明建设路径。利用Netlogo软件，以寻甸回族彝族自治县为例，通过调整各路径变量的参数进行模拟仿真，分析出生态文明建设的有效路径。从倡导生态管理理念，建立健全生态管理制度，发展生态环保产业，开拓资金筹措渠道等四方面提出实现有效路径的保障措施。