报废汽车循环利用潜力评估方法与实证研究——以京津冀地区为例

With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the generation of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) in China has entered a peak period. The recycling of ELVs is an important way to solve the bottleneck of China's resources and environment, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and achieve regional development sustainability. Understanding the recycling potential of ELVs is a prerequisite for excavating its potential and optimizing the layout of recycling facilities. However, the current evaluation methods for ELVs recycling potential require improvements in terms of objectivity, rationality, comprehensiveness and regional pertinence. Thus, taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example, this project will carry out quantitative analysis of the material flows in ELVs, establish a hybrid life cycle assessment model considering the regional characteristics and take the downcycling impact into account to evaluate the resource and environmental impacts of the whole process of ELVs treatment and identify key processes as well as the room for improvement. Through selecting the best vehicle life distribution function and taking the regional policy impacts and the composition change of vehicle materials into account, this project will establish a prediction model of the amounts of recycled materials, parts and energy et al. from ELVs. Based on the above research outcome, the recycling potential of ELVs will be evaluated and the policy implications will be also identified. The research results can provide methodological support and data reference for evaluating the recycling potential of ELVs or other end-of-life durable goods at the regional level, and also provide an important scientific basis for decision-making of ELVs sustainable management in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

随着工业化与城镇化进程加快，我国汽车报废已进入高峰期。报废汽车的循环利用已成为破解我国资源环境瓶颈、促进节能减排和实现区域可持续发展的重要途径。科学评估报废汽车循环利用潜力是实现其潜力挖掘和优化回收处理设施布局的前提。但目前报废汽车循环利用潜力的评估方法在客观性、合理性、全面性和区域针对性等方面仍有较大提升空间。故，本项目以京津冀地区为例，开展报废汽车物质流动的定量分析，构建反映区域特征的混合生命周期评价模型和考虑降级循环影响，评估报废汽车处理全过程的资源环境影响并识别关键过程和改进空间，在上述基础上，通过寿命分布函数的优选、区域政策影响和车用材料构成变化趋势的考量构建报废汽车再生产品量预测模型，评估报废汽车循环利用潜力并分析其政策意义。研究成果可为区域尺度上评估报废汽车或其他报废耐用品的循环利用潜力提供方法支撑、思路借鉴和数据参考，也可为京津冀地区报废汽车可持续管理决策提供重要科学依据。

报废汽车循环利用管理与决策需要基于其对可循环利用量的测度和评价，以明确其循环利用有利时机和空间布局。而汽车报废量的准确预测是报废汽车循环利用潜力评估的关键之一，因此本项目首先在系统梳理已有的汽车报废量预测方法系统的基础上，提出了在车龄结构历史数据缺失下一种可实现对寿命分布函数择优选取的汽车寿命估算思路，以提高汽车量预测的准确性。在进行汽车报废量预测的研究过程中，发现各国普遍采取“旧车换现金”政策对汽车报废起着加速作用。而缩短汽车使用寿命（即提早汽车的可循环利用时间节点）是否有利于资源环境是值得探讨的问题。因此，本项目开展了加速老旧汽车报废政策的资源环境效应评估研究。本项目考虑更新产品排放性能的持续改进，构建了基于关联视角的全生命周期估算模型评估加速报废汽车更新政策对材料、能源和水资源消耗、大气排放和水污染物排放的中期影响，并对北京市开展了实证研究。此外， “双碳”目标愿景下燃油汽车的替代方案是影响报废汽车循环利用潜力评估的重要因素，因此本项目还开发了一种包括车辆周期和燃料周期的生命周期计算模型用于计算两种替代车辆的资源环境效应差异，并采用国内企业的生产数据建立了针对中国的天然汽车和柴油车对比的生命周期清单数据库，通过相关指标体系全面比较了中国典型天然气重卡和柴油重卡全生命周期的资源环境效应差异。