耦合CA-MAS的海岸带生态安全空间预警与功能分区智能优化

Under the background of integrating terrestrial and marine planning, the coastal zone as the ecologically sensitive area linking up land and sea is significant for developing marine economics. It is important to maintain ecological security and properly layout the main function zones, this serves as the basic premise of sustainable development in coastal area. In this project, selecting the coastal zone of Guangdong Province along the South China Sea as sample, the research will well reveal anthropic influence on the coastal area by combining such intelligent techniques as spatial analysis, geographic process simulation and spatial intelligent optimization. This can provide scientific information for making spatial planning of coastal zone. The specific objectives and main contents of this project can be concluded as follows: (1) Monitoring the spatio-temporal change pattern of ecological land, and water environment of near shore. Landscape indices and the "Pressure-State-Influence-Response" model will be further used to discover the variation process of ecological security state. (2) Establishing a novel coupled CA and MAS model respectively based on geographically weighted regression (GWR) method and Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) architecture. In the model, local transition rules will be obtained considering the spatial correlation between the change pattern of ecological land and influence factors, as well as the agents' behaviour of making decisions. According to the model, evolution pattern of ecological land will be efficiently achieved during the planning period, and the spatial emergency model on ecological function will be further built to identify the ecological problems. (3) Multi objective optimization model for main function zone planning is built with consideration of natural conditions, economic development and ecological security constraints. The intelligent algorithm GA will be integrated into the model to obtain the optimization solutions of different exploration planning, spatial aggregation and area threshold for every function zone will be used to improve the searching strategy. According to the project, it will provide useful and scientific referrences for decision makers to warrant sustainable exploitation of resources and environmental conservation in coastal zones.

海岸带是国土空间陆海纵深的关键纽带，是开发海洋资源、发展海洋经济的重要依托，在生态安全框架下优化海岸带功能区布局对促进和保障人类社会可持续发展具有重要而深远的意义。本项目以我国广东省海岸带为研究案例，基于复杂系统理论，采用空间分析、地理过程模拟及空间智能优化等关键技术手段，建立海岸带生态安全空间预警与功能分区优化的研究框架，为实施陆海统筹规划总体开发布局提供技术支撑和决策参考。研究内容包括：通过分析海岸带生态安全状态变化趋势，耦合CA和MAS的分区模型模拟大区域复杂环境下生态用地演化格局，从生态功能服务角度进行生态安全空间预警；进一步结合空间规划目标和生态安全控制约束，构建海岸带功能分区空间智能优化模型，引入反映空间集聚片区集中规则和规划决策偏好,改善遗传算法的适应度函数，动态加入功能区最小规模约束，研究可解决多目标下的主体功能优化分区问题，获取不同规划目标下的海岸带功能区优化布局方案。

海岸带是国土空间陆海纵深的关键纽带，是开发海洋资源、发展海洋经济的重要依托，在生态安全框架下优化海岸带功能区布局对促进和保障人类社会可持续发展具有重要而深远的意义。广东省海岸带自改革开放以来发展迅速，开发强度大，给海岸带造成了较大的生态压力。本项目以我国广东省海岸带典型地区为研究案例，采用空间分析、地理过程模拟及空间智能优化等关键技术手段，分析在快速城市化背景下海岸带生态用地保护压力格局及变化趋势，探讨海岸带空间开发优化方案。.项目主要研究内容包括：基于多源卫星遥感影像数据，分析广东省海岸带空间开发变化趋势，生态用地尤其是围填海、湿地及红树林变化态势；从时空过程角度分析20世纪70年代以来珠江口围填海情况及空间差异，并对2050围填海形势进行了风险估计与潜力分析；以多源遥感影像为主要数据源，结合实地调查，选择典型案例区，识别海岸线类型，分析海岸带资源开发利用强度与空间开发过程，自然海岸带演化过程，生态海岸带退化趋势，深入分析海岸带城市化与生态环境之间的空间冲突；并利用分区CA模型模拟大区域复杂环境下生态用地演化格局，从生态功能服务角度进行生态安全空间预警；构建元胞自动机与蚁群智能模型，优化海岸带沿海城市城市化过程与生态保护的二元空间协调开发格局；进一步选择典型案例区，结合空间规划目标和生态安全控制约束，构建海岸带功能分区空间蚁群智能优化模型，获取不同规划目标下的用地优化布局方案。.通过本项目的研究，积累了广东省海岸带多时相土地利用、生态用地、围填海以及海岸线变迁数据等，形成了广东省海岸带资源调查基本数据库；在前期数据处理与分析、模型构建的基础上，整理了相关研究成果，撰写了相关学术论文，已发表或接收论文7篇（其中：中文核心5篇；EI 1篇；SCI 1篇），另有3篇论文已投稿（其中中文核心2篇，SCI 1篇）。相关研究成果可以为广东省海岸带资源调查提供数据基础，为广东省海岸带综合开发与生态环境保护提供参考。