社会网络和农业环境政策交互影响下农户生计响应、生态环境效应与政策优化路径

As the direct manager of the agricultural land, farmers’ livelihood decisions are closely related to environmental degradation. To promote the sustainable development of human and environment, many agri-environmental policies have been implemented. However, the effects of policies vary largely and are often far from satisfactory. This can attribute to the complexity of human behaviors, which are significantly affected by the social context. However, little is known about the mechanism of how social networks interact with policies and finally influence farmers’ livelihood. Therefore, this study aims to examine the underlying associations. Specific objectives include: (1) establish an theoretical model to reveal the interaction and feedback mechanisms among agri-environment policies, livelihoods of rural farmers, and the rural environment; (2) conduct an empirical study to explore the mediating or moderating effect of social networks on the relationship between agri-environment policies and livelihoods of rural farmers, and evaluate the impacts of farmers’ livelihood decisions on rural environment; (3) develop a spatially explicit agent-based model to explore the evolution of the coupled human-environmental systems under a series of alternative policy scenarios, and validate the influence mechanisms revealed in theoretical and empirical models; (4) propose implications for policy-makers to improve agri-environmental policies and local development support policies. These findings can be highly valuable for policy-makers to design more efficient agri-environmental policies. This study can also provide important implications for the sustainable development of farmer livelihood and the rural environment in contiguous poverty-stricken areas.

农户是农业土地系统最直接的管理者，其生计决策与农村生态环境退化密切相关。农业环境政策是引导农户实施环境友好型生计方式的重要手段，然而其实施效果往往不尽如人意，根本原因在于农户生计行为十分复杂，易受社会环境影响，表现出明显的“同群效应”。鲜有文献将社会影响嵌入政策和农户生计关系研究中，探索社会网络对政策的抑制或促进作用。因此，本项目拟开展以下研究：1）以人地关系理论、农户经济理论、社会化影响理论为基础，构建社会网络嵌入下的农业环境政策、农户生计、生态环境交互影响理论模型；2）基于大别山区集中连片特困区实地调研数据，开展实证研究，揭示社会网络和农业环境政策交互作用下农户生计响应机制和生态环境效应；3）构建多智能体政策仿真模型，探索不同政策情景下农户与生态环境系统演化方向；4）提出农业环境政策优化路径。研究成果可为我国农业环境政策优化提供新思路，为农户生计与生态环境协调发展提供实践指导。

本课题基于人类−环境耦合交互理论、人地关系理论、农户经济理论、社会化影响理论，聚焦微观农户生计决策与乡村社会生态系统耦合交互过程与机理，在理论方面构建了社会网络嵌入下的农业环境政策、农户生计、生态环境交互反馈理论模型，个体劳动力配置与农户流转影响机理理论模型，以及基于立地条件评价系统和可持续生计分析框架的农用地流转影响机理模型，深入解析社会化影响下乡村地域系统人类与环境耦合交互过程与机理。在理论研究基础上，基于在大别山区入户调研收集的微观数据开展实证研究，评估了农业环境政策（退耕还林工程、生态公益林保护工程、农业支持补贴）对农户劳动力配置与土地利用生计决策的影响机理；探索了农村立地条件与农户生计资本对农用地流转的交互作用；剖析了农户生计韧性驱动机理及其生计环境效应，评估农户生计决策结果及其对农村生态环境的影响，辨识大别山集中连片特困区农户生计与环境可持续发展的关键制约因素。基于理论模型和实证研究结论，运用多智能体建模技术，本课题开发了社会网络与农业环境政策交互影响下的农户生计决策模拟仿真模型，设计不同农业环境政策情景模式，开展政策仿真实验，对理论与实证模型进一步验证与完善，探索不同政策情景下乡村社会生态系统演化方向，验证社会网络与农业环境政策对农户生计决策的影响。最后，基于实证研究与模拟结果，提出优化农业环境政策、促进农户生计和生态可持续发展的对策建议。本课题丰富了人类−环境耦合视角下微观农户生计决策机理的理论与技术方法，也为连片脱贫地区巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接、优化农业环境政策提供重要的决策依据。项目共发表标记项目编号的学术文章14篇，其中SSCI/SCI论文13篇，CSSCI论文1篇。