港口集疏运方式转移的减排贡献及引导政策研究

Policy guidance is one of the effective ways to boost modal shift from trucks to trains or ships in port-hinterland transport and reduce carbon emission from regional transportation, but the functional relationship among the guided policy, modal shift potential, and emission reduction contributions (hereinafter referred to as three factors) is still not clear. The applicant has tested and verified the feasibility of analyzing this relationship based on shippers’ choice behavior in previous studies. In order to reveal the mechanism of guided policy’s impact on modal shift potential and emission reduction contributions, this project will focus on a port-hinterland transport system and take the shippers’ choice behavior as an entry point for studying the functional relationship among above three factors. Firstly, we will modify the mixed logit model concentrating on the structure of utility function, and combine the S-efficient design approach with RP (revealed preference) /SP (stated preference) survey techniques to establish a choice model for analyzing shippers’ choice behavior, and then we will assess the modal shift potential based on this model. Next, by introducing the concept of transport chain and semi-life cycle analysis, we are going to build an estimation model for estimating the carbon emission intensity of each hinterland transport chain, and then we will calculate the contribution of unit modal shift to carbon emission reduction on this basis. Finally, based on the framework of ASIF (Activity – modal Share – energy Intensity – carbon intensity of Fuel) equation, we are about to create an impact analysis model for analyzing the impact of guided policy on emission reduction contributions, and establish the functional relationship among above three factors. The research achievement of this project can provide a theoretical and decision-making basis for making guided policy of modal shift in port-hinterland transport, which is helpful to promote the sustainable development of regional transportation.

政策引导是推进港口集疏运方式转移、减少区域交通碳排放的有效途径之一，但引导政策、转移潜力、减排贡献三者之间的作用关系尚不明确。申请人在前期研究中已初步验证了基于托运人选择行为分析三者作用关系的可行性。项目以港口集疏运系统为对象，从托运人选择行为入手，对三者作用关系进行研究，以揭示引导政策对转移潜力及减排贡献的影响机理。首先，针对效用函数结构对混合Logit模型进行改进，并结合S-efficient设计方法及RP/SP调查技术，建立托运人选择行为模型，评估集疏运方式转移潜力；然后，引入运输链和半生命周期分析理念，建立集疏运方式碳排放强度估算模型，测算单位转移量的碳减排贡献；最后，基于ASIF方程框架，构建引导政策对减排贡献的影响分析模型，并结合研究所得转移潜力和单位转移量减排贡献，确立三者之间的作用关系。研究成果可为制定集疏运方式转移引导政策提供理论和决策依据，有助于促进区域交通可持续发展。

公路集疏运占比过高严重制约了区域交通的可持续发展，而政策引导是推进港口集疏运方式转移、减少区域交通碳排放的有效途径之一，但引导政策、转移潜力、减排贡献三者之间的作用关系尚不明确，不利于引导政策的制定和调整。本项目旨在通过研究三者之间的作用关系，提出适应港口集疏运方式转移的引导政策影响分析理论方法，揭示引导政策对转移潜力及减排贡献的影响机理。本项目基本完成了预期目标，构建了基于托运人选择行为的集疏运方式转移潜力评估模型，建立了基于运输链和半生命周期评价理念的集疏运碳排放测算方法，提出了整合集疏运方式转移潜力和运输链碳排放强度差异的引导政策减排贡献分析框架，通过案例研究验证了理论方法的有效性。本项目研究成果可为制定和调整集疏运方式转移引导政策提供理论和决策依据，有利于促进区域交通可持续发展。