武陵山片区城镇化的农户生计响应与减贫成效分异研究

Poverty alleviation and urbanization of the contiguous destitute areas have been the hot topics of poverty research in recent years, but there were few scholars who pay attention to the heterogeneity of urbanization’s poverty alleviation effect and its formation mechanism, so, these researches didn’t give enough and effective theoretical and practical instructions for optimizing urbanization’s poverty alleviation effect. With the perspective of farmer’s livelihood response, this project will take Wuling Mountain Area as a sample, apply the theories of geography of rural households and sustainable livelihood to build a farmer’s livelihood response measure algorithm, and measure the farmer’s livelihood response degrees of both scales of counties and individual farmers, and analysis of their temporal and spatial changing rule and influence factors, then, synthesize and apply the theories and methods of different disciplines to simulate and indentify the influence path and mechanism of farmer’s livelihood response to urbanization poverty alleviation effect quantitatively and qualitatively, and construct a differentiation theory of urbanization’s poverty alleviation which contains three key variables such as urbanization, farmer’s livelihood response and urbanization’s poverty alleviation effect. Lastly, this project will predict the types changing tendency of urbanization’s poverty alleviation effect and propose some corresponding countermeasures to optimize Wuling Mountain Area’s urbanization’s poverty alleviation effect. The project is also expected to deepen and expand the research of poverty influenced by urbanization and make a new interpretation on the heterogeneity of poverty alleviation effect of urbanization, meanwhile, provide skill support and practical guide for acceleration of reducing and removing poverty by urbanization strategies for the contiguous destitute areas.

连片特困地区的减贫与城镇化是近年来贫困研究中的热点领域，但鲜有研究关注连片特困区城镇化减贫成效的异质性及其形成机制，未能为优化城镇化减贫成效提供有效的理论和实践支持。本项目拟基于农户生计响应的视角，以武陵山片区为样本，综合农户地理论和可持续生计论，构建农户生计响应测度算法，测度片区县域和案例地个体层面农户城镇化生计响应程度，剖析其时空演变规律与影响因素，并集成多学科理论和方法，定量、定性相结合地模拟和识别农户生计响应对城镇化减贫成效的影响路径与机制，构建“城镇化-农户生计响应-减贫成效分异”的城镇化减贫成效分异理论，预测城镇化减贫成效类型区划分异趋势，设计城镇化减贫成效优化方案，提升武陵山片区城镇化减贫成效。本研究有望在理论上深化和拓展城镇化对贫困影响的研究，为城镇化减贫成效异质性提供一种新的解释，同时为连片特困区用好城镇化战略加快减贫、脱贫提供技术支持和实践指导。

连片贫困地区面临着城镇化和脱贫攻坚的双重任务，在快速城镇化阶段，如何发挥城镇化的减贫效应，高质量推进城镇化和脱贫攻坚，是该类区域急需研究的重要课题。与此同时，农户生计响应作为城乡关系中重要的中间变量，对城镇化和脱贫攻坚不可避免地产生影响。然而，已有的研究并没有关注三者之间的关联及其作用机制。. 本项目以连片特困区的典型代表武陵山片区为案例地，基于地理学的人地关系和城乡地域系统的视角，借鉴“人业地”耦合区域贫困模型和可持续生计分析框架，构建农户生计响应“4维度-3强度”测度指标体系，测度不同空间尺度的城镇化减贫效应、农户生计响应及其时空演变特征，检验识别农户生计响应对城镇化减贫成效的影响机制和路径，预测城镇化减贫成效分异趋势，并提出相应的干预策略。经过四年的努力，项目圆满完成预期研究任务，取得了以下方面的重要结果。一是全面分析了武陵山片区城镇化减贫效应的空间异质性、演变特征和影响因素；二是测度和对比分析了片区不同空间尺度下城镇化农户生计响应的及影响因素；三是阐释和识别了城镇化的农户生计响应机制与路径；四是阐释和识别了城镇化农户生计响应对乡村振兴的影响；五是提出了产业扶贫的“生计响应—多维益贫—持续脱贫”分析框架；六是阐释了产业扶贫生计协同响应机制。此外，项目积累了武陵山片区71县市区、典型乡镇、村寨以及样本农户的城镇化生计响应、脱贫成效等宏观和微观数据。. “城镇化—农户生计响应—减贫成效/乡村振兴”分析框架是本研究最重要的理论成果，其科学意义在于，一是将农户生计响应这一城乡关系中重要的中间变量引入城镇化与减贫、城镇化与乡村振兴关系的研究中，为解释城镇化减贫成效的时空差异及其演变趋势提供了一种新的视角；二是为连片特困区这类特殊类型区域如何发挥城镇化与脱贫攻坚、乡村振兴的联动效应、协同效应提供了新的分析框架。事实上，部分成果已转化为实际应用，在指导片区减贫实践中发挥了重要作用。