气候变化下流域极端洪水事件响应机制与适应性调度研究

Extreme flood event, affected by climate change, is becoming the major challenge and risk of flood mitigation and regional development of China for now and future. However, some vital techniques still need further exploration in terms of land-atmosphere coupling, extreme hydrological variability detection and adaptive theory and methods. Here, we focus on the extreme flood events under climate change, follow the “response estimation-variation detection-influence assessment-adaptive strategy” as the main research route, select the upper reaches of the Huai River as the research area, and propose the research as follows: 1) develop the multiscale land-atmosphere interaction and transition mechanism, propose the dynamic process simulation method and response prediction model of extreme flood event under climate change; 2) develop the multi-dimensional flood process variation indices, explore the identification and detection methods of temporal-spatial variation character of extreme flood process; 3) develop the modeling and coupling technique for flood control system, present the adaptive operation model of extreme flood events under climate change. As the result, we are aiming at reveal the dynamic formation and evolutional mechanism of extreme flood event at diverse temporal-spatial scales, simulate the responses of extreme flood events to the climate change, estimate the variation characters of extreme flood process, and establish the adaptive scheduling scheme and systematic response plan to the extreme flood events. This will facilitate us to improve the adaptive ability to climate change and to scientifically prevent and tackle extreme flood disaster for the future.

气候变化所引起的极端洪水事件已成为我国当前与未来防洪减灾与地区发展所面临的重大风险和挑战，但目前在陆气耦合技术、极端水文变异检测、适应性理论与方法等方面尚未实现系统性突破。围绕气候变化下的极端洪水事件，项目以“响应预估-变异检测-影响评估-适应机制”为主线，针对淮河上游地区，拟开展以下研究：1）建立不同时空尺度陆-气相互作用与转换机制，研究气候变化下极端洪水事件动力过程模拟与响应预估方法；2）建立多维洪水过程变异特征指标，研究极端洪水过程时空变异特征识别与检测技术；3）研究复杂防洪体系的耦合模拟技术，建立气候变化下极端洪水适应性调度模型。通过本项目研究，揭示不同尺度下极端洪水事件形成与演变的动力机制，预估极端洪水对气候变化的响应，解析未来极端洪水过程时空变异特征，建立流域防洪体系的适应性调度方案和系统应对机制，这对于提高我国气候变化适应能力和积极应对极端洪水灾害具有重要科学意义和实用价值。

气候变化所引起的极端洪水事件已成为我国当前与未来防洪减灾与地区发展所面临的重大风险和挑战，但目前在陆气耦合技术、极端水文变异检测、适应性理论与方法等方面尚未实现系统性突破。围绕气候变化下的极端洪水事件，项目以“响应预估-变异检测-影响评估-适应机制”为主线，深入分析极端降水事件的概念、现象及其对流域水文与防洪系统影响的主要机理，研究提出极端降水事件影响的评估方法与研究模式。构建基于广义极值分布的极端降水统计模型，利用典型暴雨过程放大法模拟极端降水过程，并驱动垂向混合产流水文模型模拟流域水文响应。同时，建立极端降水事件下流域适应性防洪调度模型，利用遗传算法进行模型求解。最后，以新安江流域为例，全面评估极端降水事件对于流域水文及防洪系统的影响，并对其适应性调度展开研究，就新安江流域如何应对未来极端降水事件变化提出科学合理的对策与建议，为未来流域科学防洪管理提供理论支持。