不确定环境下微能源网群综合资源规划研究：能源共享视角

Energy sharing could contribute to promoting the development pattern of micro energy grid from "individual" to "group", in order to realize the spatiotemporal complementarity of energy supply units and energy consumption behavior. For the ordered layout of micro energy grid group, and realizing multi-energy interaction, comprehensive utilization, it is necessary to coordinate the supply side and demand side resources, and form a cross-regional integrated resource planning from the perspective of energy sharing. However, the lack of energy sharing mechanism and the interaction of multiple uncertainties restrict the rational planning of multi-micro energy grids. Therefore, based on the cooperative game framework, this project firstly constructs an energy sharing mechanism, which conforms to the principle of incentive compatibility, to coordinate resources allocation and balance benefit allocation in micro energy grids. Furthermore, from the aspects of technology, policy, supply side, and demand side, the uncertainty factors affecting the planning of multi-micro energy grids under the energy sharing condition are described. Finally, based on the energy sharing mechanism, we solve the integrated resource planning problem of micro energy grid group in uncertain environment and make the policy recommendations. To optimize the above complex problem, which is characterized by multi-energy flow coupling, multi-regional coordination and multi-stakeholder game, we integrate several theories, such as uncertain programming, hierarchical planning, and cooperative game. On the one hand, we expect to enrich the integrated resource planning theory. One the other hand, it is expected to provide decision supports for promoting the urban energy strategy innovation based on micro energy grid.

能源共享有助于推动微能源网从“个体化”向“群体化”发展，以实现不同供能单元和用能行为的时空互补。为有序布局城市内部微能源网群，实现多能源互联互通、综合利用，需基于能源共享视角，统筹供给侧和需求侧资源，进行多微网跨区域综合资源规划。然而，能源共享机制的缺失以及多重不确定因素的交互作用制约着微能源网群的科学合理规划。为此，本项目首先基于合作博弈框架，构建符合激励相容原理的能源共享机制，解决微能源网群资源协调配置及利益均衡分配问题。进而，从技术、政策、供给、需求等多个角度，刻画能源共享情形下影响微能源网群规划的不确定因素。最后，基于能源共享机制，集成不确定规划、分层规划、合作博弈等理论，解决不确定环境下具有多能流耦合、多区域协同、多主体博弈特征的微能源网群综合资源规划问题，凝练发展微能源网群的政策建议。以期从理论上丰富综合资源规划方法体系，并为推进基于微能源网的城市能源发展战略革新提供决策支撑。

能源共享有助于推动微能源网从“个体化”向“群体化”发展，以实现不同供能单元和用能行为的时空互补。为实现“双碳”目标、有序布局城市内部微能源网群，本项目提出了基于博弈的集中式和分布式能源共享、市场情景下基于价格的能源共享、市场管制情景下协同考虑供给侧和需求侧资源的能源共享多种模式，明确了各模式下参与主体的互动策略和利益分配方法，并分析了不同共享模式以及不同碳排放责任划分原则对共享参与主体经济效益和环境效益的影响。进而，对供给侧、需求侧和市场环境中存在的不确定因素进行了表征。在此基础上，为了探索实现低碳能源转型和碳减排目标的低成本路径，构建了微能源网综合资源规划模型，整合了技术经济和政策因素，解决了不同碳减排强度下微能源网配置和政策参数的优化问题。最后，在“绿色、协调、共享”发展理念的基础上，统筹考虑规划和运行阶段，结合微能源网物理模型，提出了能源共享情形下微网群综合资源规划模型，兼顾个体利益均衡分配的基础上对微能源网群进行整体规划，实现能源互联互通、综合利用，优化区域内不同微能源网供能储能技术选择、设备配置策略等，凝练政策建议。该成果为解决复杂系统资源的协调规划以及能源生产、转换、存储、消费、共享的协同优化难题、制定微网实施规划和激励政策、推进基于微能源网的城市新型能源体系建设具有重要现实意义，同时对于丰富能源共享商业模式和多主体协同优化决策理论体系具有重要学术价值。