BOT项目提前终止补偿决策模型与应用研究

This research intends to build a compensation decision-making model for early termination of BOT projects to solve the pressing issues of indistinct liabilities identification and considerable controversy on compensation decision-making for early termination in practice. And the model will be further applied and verified. (1) Construct key influencing factors set of the early termination of BOT projects, and define the responsibility and share proportion between the government and the company for each influencing factor. (2) Identify decision variables of compensation for early termination, and analyze the relationship of each type of decision variables as well as their effects on the compensation for early termination. (3) Various methods (multi-objective planning, game theory, etc.) will be comprehensively used to design the compensation decision-making model for early termination in three cases including default of the government, default of the company and the responsibility shared by two parties, then the solution analysis of the model will be conducted. In addition, the differences will be deliberated between the compensation decision-making models at two different types of early termination points which are respectively during the construction period and the operation period. (4) Focus on three kinds of research objects with a higher frequency of early termination in BOT projects, which are public transport projects, water treatment projects and waste disposal projects. The verification of the application and the analysis of the applicability of the model will be conducted..This research is to deepen and complete the decision theories and methods of BOT projects. The findings can provide decision support for the government and the company when carrying out the negotiation of early termination as well as provide the basis for the two parties to allocate the project risk and improve the concession agreement.

为了解决BOT项目实践中"提前终止责任界定不清、提前终止补偿争议大"的紧迫问题，本课题拟构建BOT项目提前终止补偿决策模型并加以应用验证。（1）建立BOT项目提前终止的关键影响因素集，确定各类影响因素的责任分担主体及比例；（2）识别BOT项目提前终止补偿的决策变量，分析各类决策变量之间的关系以及对提前终止补偿的影响；（3）综合运用多目标规划、博弈等方法设计政府部门承担责任、项目公司承担责任、双方共担责任三种情况下的提前终止补偿决策模型并进行求解分析，研究在建设期和运营期两类不同时点下提前终止补偿决策模型的差异；（4）以公共交通、水处理和垃圾处理三类提前终止频次较高的BOT项目为重点应用研究对象，进行模型的应用验证和适用性分析。.本课题是对BOT项目决策理论与方法的深化和完善，研究成果既可以为政府部门与项目公司开展提前终止谈判提供决策支持，也可以为双方分担项目风险、改进特许经营协议提供依据。

为了解决实践中BOT项目提前终止责任界定不清、提前终止补偿决策缺乏科学依据的紧迫问题，本课题拟构建BOT项目提前终止的补偿决策模型并加以应用验证。（1）建立BOT项目提前终止的关键影响因素集，确定各类影响因素的责任分担主体及比例；（2）识别BOT项目提前终止补偿的决策变量，分析各类决策变量之间的关系以及对提前终止补偿的影响；（3）综合运用多目标规划、博弈等方法设计政府部门违约、项目公司违约、双方共担责任三种情况下的提前终止补偿决策模型并进行求解分析，研究建设期和运营期两类不同时点下提前终止补偿决策模型的差异；（4）以公共交通、水处理、垃圾处理三类提前终止频次较高的BOT项目为重点应用研究对象，进行模型的应用验证和适用性分析。.本课题是对BOT项目决策理论与方法的深化和完善，研究成果既可以为政府与项目公司开展BOT项目提前终止谈判提供决策支持，也可以为双方分担项目风险、改进特许经营协议提供依据。