新技术革命背景下全球稀有金属流动格局演变与我国供应安全研究

Competition of rare metals among countries have become more severe due to new technology revolution, which leads to more complex dynamic patterns of global rare metal flows. And the supply and demand contradiction will become even more serious and will last long time in the future. Focusing on this problem, from the perspectives of resource flow and material flow analysis, this project first establishes global rare metal flow networks on the basis of quantifying the flows and stocks of rare metals, which identifies the temporal and spatial evolution of global rare metal flow patterns for products in each stage of the whole life cycle in main countries. Second, combining the dynamic evaluation of flows and stocks in vertical and horizontal global rare metal flows, supply security evaluation models are established to dynamically evaluate and predict China's rare metal supply security under the background of new technology revolution. Third, via scenario simulation, this project scientifically designs paths for relieving the supply risk of China's rare metals and analyzes the effects of these paths. Thus, targeted, scientific and effective policy suggestions can be provided. The research results will expand and deepen theories and research methods of resources management, and provide theoretical base for giving practical and targeted measures for preventing China's supply risk of rare metals, and then improve supply capability of China's rare metals.

新技术革命使得各国对稀有金属资源的争夺日趋激烈，让全球稀有金属资源流动格局更为复杂多变，未来我国稀有金属面临的供需矛盾将更为凸显。针对该问题，本项目基于资源流动和物质流分析的视角，首先在定量核算稀有金属资源流量和存量的基础上，构建全球稀有金属流动网络，识别主要国家稀有金属全生命周期各环节产品的流动格局的演变特征和规律；其次，基于流动网络构建稀有金属供应安全的评估模型，结合全球稀有金属纵横向资源流量和存量动态评估和资源流动格局变化趋势，对新技术革命冲击下的我国稀有金属资源供应安全进行动态评估和预判；最后，通过情景仿真模拟，科学设计我国稀有金属供应危机的缓解路径并分析其效果，从而能够提出具有针对性和可操作性的政策建议。研究成果将拓展和深化资源管理理论和研究方法，为增强我国稀有金属供应风险防范能力提供理论依据，提高我国稀有金属供应保障能力。

项目研究过程中发表学术论文55篇，出版专著1部，待出版专著1部，被采纳应用的研究报告5篇。项目研究主要内容和创新如下：.新技术革命使得各国对稀有金属资源的争夺日趋激烈，让全球稀有金属资源流动格局更为复杂多变，未来我国稀有金属面临的供需矛盾将更为凸显。.项目对锂、铍、钽三种典型稀有金属的流动现状进行了分析，以锂和钽为例，基于全产业链视角构建全球稀有金属上中下游的资源流动网络模型，通过分析其网络拓扑结构特征描绘全球稀有金属流动格局演变规律，揭示锂和钽产业链不同环节产品全球流动网络格局之间的相似性、差异性、相互联系以及相互影响的动态流动网络演化规律。在此基础上，项目构建全球稀有金属资源流动格局驱动因素的模型，分析了影响其全球资源流动格局演变的经济、研发等因素。.项目评估我国及相关贸易国家稀有金属资源供应安全，将资源流动网络特征指标如平均度、接近中心性、中介中心性、节点及边等引入稀有金属资源供应安全评估体系，与传统供应安全评估体系相结合，构建新的全面反映稀有金属资源供应安全的评估体系，对我国以及相关贸易国家稀有金属资源供应安全进行科学评估。.项目评估新能源汽车冲击和供应中断影响下我国稀有金属供应链应对能力，构建我国稀有金属资源供应链弹性评估的系统动力学模型，通过分析锂供应链在新能源汽车冲击和供应中断等不同情景下，锂供应链弹性的变化情况，揭示我国锂资源供应链应对外部冲击的能力。.研究对丰富和拓展稀有金属资源需求及安全管理的理论和方法，增强我国稀有金属供应风险防范能力，保障国家战略的实施具有重大意义。