经济不确定条件下我国碳市场配额跨期分配与动态调整研究

Effective and stabilized carbon price plays a pivotal role in achieving cost-effeciveness and stability of carbon market. The economic change is an important source for carbon emissions uncertainty. It is therefore worth considering how to set periodical cap for carbon market with dynamic adjustment such that weakening the impact of economic uncertainty on carbon price. This is of great significance for price stability in China's carbon market. To this end, from the perspective of cost-effectiveness, this project firstly estimates the national marginal abatement cost and quantitatively depicts its dynamic changes, providing a basis for the analysis of intertemporal quota allocation with dynamic adjustment. Secondly, under the constraints of China's carbon intensity target by 2030, the periodical cap for national carbon market is obtained by the proposed intertemporal quota allocation model based on Markov. Finally, three kinds of dynamic adjustment policy are designed. By introducing economic shocks, the differences of carbon price stabilization, cost-effectiveness and emissions reduction are respectively analyzed quantitatively in the benchmark scenario (no adjustment) and three adjustment policy scenarios. Furthermore, the parameter sensitivity is proposed. This project preliminary explores the path of quota supply by 2030 and path of cap adjustment corresponding with potential economic shocks for the national carbon market, which will provide feasible strategy against price volatility.

有效稳定碳价对碳市场低成本减排及稳定运行至关重要。经济变化是碳排放不确定性重要来源，如何分配不同时期市场总配额并进行动态调整，弱化经济不确定性对碳价的影响，对实现我国碳市场价格稳定具有重要意义。为此，本项目从市场减排总成本优化视角出发，首先估计我国边际碳减排成本，并定量刻画其动态变化，为配额跨期分配和配额动态调整研究提供基础；其次，在我国2030年碳强度目标约束下，构建基于马尔科夫性质下的配额跨期分配模型，解决市场配额跨期分配问题；最后，设计三种配额动态调整机制，引入不同类型经济冲击，定量分析基准情景（无调整）及三种调整机制的不同政策情景下的碳价稳定效果、成本有效性及减排成效等方面差异，并进行参数敏感性分析。本项目初步探寻到2030年全国碳市场配额总供给路径，以及潜在经济冲击下相应的配额调整路径，为稳定碳价提供针对性的应对策略。

合理分配不同时期市场总配额并进行动态调整，弱化这种经济中不确定性因素对碳价的影响，对实现碳市场价格稳定具有重要意义。围绕研究目标，本项目完成了两方面主要工作：一是基于理论模型与计量分析方法，研究了多种经济不确定性因素，包括碳市场势力、经济政策变化、技术进步和减排目标约束，对企业生产和碳排放行为、企业技术创新、减排效率和碳价波动等方面的影响。二是针对上述不确定性因素可能引发的效率损失和碳市场风险，分别开展碳市场配额跨期分配调整机制建模和碳市场风险仿真模拟研究，提出基于碳市场价格波动限制的数量-价格混合减排政策机制，以及碳市场风险调控优化策略。本研究从理论上证明了该机制较现行的总量控制交易制度，在碳价稳定及减排效率上均具有优势，针对试点碳市场的仿真模拟结果表明上述优化调控策略可有效降低碳市场运行风险。本项目研究成果为完善我国碳市场运行机制设计提供理论基础，并为我国碳市场风险调控提供信息支持和决策依据。