水资源最优楔合配置研究

The water allocation is an important means of water resources decision support. However, the interaction of climate change and human activities, the uncertainty of runoff and water demand as well as the wedged process of water demand during various industries have become increasingly prominent influence on water allocation. This study firstly plans to reveal the regular process of agricultural water demand and ecological water demand respectively. Then Wedged Process Theory of agricultural and ecological was preliminary constructed considering the wedged process between agricultural and ecological water demand. Different from the traditional allocation model, this study is put forward to improve the model on the points of mechanism and mode in the optimization process of decision making in order to overcome the uncertainty problem. In addition, Crop Water Production Function and ecological threshold are considered as constraint. Based on the Wedged Process Theory, this study aims to find an optimal decision function to describe the wedged process between agricultural water demand and ecological water demand. It can be used in the allocation model to obtain the optimal scheme of water supply and realize the water resources optimal wedged allocation under multi-target decision.

水资源配置是水资源决策支持的重要手段，然而，气候变化和人类活动共同作用下，来水/需水不确定性问题以及各行业间需水过程的联动问题，对配置结果产生的影响日益凸显。本研究旨在通过定量解析农业需水过程和生态需水过程，初步构建农业-生态需水楔合过程理论；在传统配置模型基础上，对模型在优化过程中决策的机制和方式加以改进，克服来水/需水不确定性问题。同时，以作物水分生产函数和生态阈值为约束，基于农业-生态需水楔合过程理论，定量刻画研究区的优化决策过程，给出相应的函数表达式，并纳入模型中进行配置计算；遴选出最优配置结果及其对应的农业-生态需水楔合过程曲线，实现多目标水资源最优楔合配置。

随着国家粮食安全与生态安全战略的实施，生态与经济用水竞争愈演愈烈，突出表现在生态与经济用水过程中的矛盾关系。常规水资源配置虽解决了水源用户用水总量间的合理分配，但无法定量精细化用水过程。本研究围绕“农业生态需水楔合理论及其确定方法”这一科学问题，开展生态与经济用水过程规律研究，并构建适于解决生态与经济用水交互过程的水资源配置模型，对指导精细化水资源配置工作有借鉴意义。.本研究提出需水楔合的理论假设，引入“前景理论、宽浅式破坏理念、生态阈值及生态系统多稳态特点”作为需水楔合的理论基础，提炼需水楔合关系要素及其确定方法。提出基于需水楔合理念的优化决策函数，改进了基于GAMS开发系统的水资源优化配置模型；从周期性决策方式、决策偏好反转、配置结果后评估等一系列求解策略入手，提出了基于需水楔合理念的优化决策函数求解策略。最后，以乌裕尔河双阳河流域为例，对比分析了需水楔合前后的配置结果，遴选出乌裕尔河双阳河流域最优的配置结果及其对应的农业-生态需水楔合过程曲线，应用到常态化生态补水模拟和农业单产下降比例预警的实践案例当中，为决策者权衡生态与农业供水分配方案提供参考。