基于维修策略的多组件系统重要度分析方法研究

In the system life cycle, major equipments and facilities have put forward higher and higher requirements for the risk controls of system operation, which not only can cause significant losses of state property, but also have a great impact on the human development and even the survival environment. Component importance measure and maintenance are the main methods of identifying and reducing the risk of system operation. So, based on the theory of importance measures, this project will discuss the effect of component maintenance policy on the states of system operation in the system life cycle. This is a key point for reducing the risk of system operation, which is also a research hotspot in the current reliability theory.. This project will conduct research on: (1) The computation methods of component importance measures for multi-component systems based on maintenance policies. They not only discover the influence mechanism and rules of component maintenance policy on the risk of system operation, but also extend traditional importance measures from time point to time period and system life cycle. They show the effect of the change of component states and time accumulation on the system operation. These enrich the theory system and application category of the importance measures. (2) The optimal allocation methods of the maintenance spare parts based on importance measures. They not only discover the influence mechanism of the supply of maintenance spare parts on the improvement of system performance with different maintenance policies, but also provide methodological support for reducing the risk of system operation in the system life cycle.

重大装备和设施对面向全寿命周期的系统运行风险提出了越来越高的要求，其运行风险失控不仅会造成了国家财产的重大损失，甚至会对人类的发展和生存环境造成巨大的影响，而组件重要度分析及维修是识别和降低系统运行风险的主要手段。面向系统全寿命周期，基于重要度理论探索组件维修过程及维修策略对系统运行状态的影响机理及规律是解决该问题的关键，也是目前可靠性领域研究的热点之一。. 本项目研究的基于维修策略的多组件系统重要度分析方法，不仅揭示了组件维修过程及维修策略对系统运行风险的影响机理及规律，而且将重要度计算方法从时间点拓展到了时间段和系统全寿命周期，体现了组件状态变化过程和时间累积效应对系统运行的影响程度，丰富了重要度理论体系，拓展了重要度应用范畴；基于重要度的维修备件优化配置方法，不仅揭示了不同维修策略条件下维修备件供应对系统性能提升的影响机理，而且为面向全寿命周期降低系统运行风险提供了方法支撑。

本课题以维修理论和系统更新过程为指导，通过分析系统维修过程及维修策略对组件重要度的影响机理。针对在多态系统中不同类型的部件，利用更新过程来描述它们的失效行为，然后建立不同部件的可靠性模型，基于重要度来确定各部件预防性维修阈值和备件供应阈值，提出了预防性维修和备件供应联合策略。以多组件独立系统为研究对象，针对事后维修行为和预防性维修行为，研究完美维修策略、年龄策略、周期策略条件下的组件重要度计算方法及物理意义；基于组件之间的相依关系和维修成本，针对多组件相依系统的预防性维修行为，研究分组维修策略和机会维修策略条件下的组件重要度计算方法及物理意义，并将经济依赖性运用到维修成本模型中来评价联合策略，得到最优检查周期和备件供应值；讨论不同维修策略条件下，多组件系统重要度在典型系统的计算公式，分析维修策略对组件重要度的影响规律。以维修备件成本为约束条件，以多组件系统性能提升最大化为目标，研究面向任务的多组件系统维修备件优化配置方法，探讨多种类备件的库存控制与优化方法。该课题研究揭示了组件维修过程及维修策略对组件重要度影响机理，为准确计算组件状态转移过程或组件维修更新过程对多组件系统可靠性的影响分析提供理论支撑；揭示了基于重要度理论的维修备件优化配置数学模型及其算法的科学性，为维修备件的库存控制及优化提供方法支撑。