基于碳流情景模拟的低碳新城空间规划研究

The planning of the new city of low carbon is of great concern. Becausethe fast urbanization results in increasingly numbers of carbon source which changes the city into the main source of carbon emission. Owing to the lack of systematic technique and quantitative research, it is important to audit and assess the design of the new city planning of different goaled to carbon emission. Therefore, the study explores the related discipline among the land use,functional structure, space form and carbon emission through the carbon emission dynamic model which is the analysis tool for the city planning decision-making. Mainly, the research content involves four parts：(1)build the carbon emission float database at an urban scale, which can carry out quantitative analysis according to the sub-modles of residence, commerce,transportation,industry and others.(2) adopt the modelling and simulation of energy consuming and carbon emission on the basis of the systematic dynamics.(3)analyze the correlation between the carbon emission and the city factors in terms of transportation, industry, land use and population so as to visualize the timing change and spatial distribution of carbon emission strength in the case study region.(4)provide the parameter system of low-carbon city spatial planning in order to find the low-carbon city planning method.

快速城市化意谓越来越多的新城成为碳源集中地，低碳新城建设已成关注热点。对新城规划设计方案进行碳审计评估显得尤为重要，但目前尚缺乏成熟的技术方法，相关的量化研究也较少。研究旨在通过构建面向城乡规划的碳流数据库和碳流动态模型，模拟分析案例地区不同空间策略下的城市碳排放情景，探讨我国新城土地利用、功能结构、空间形态与碳排放的相关规律。. 研究内容包括：1、建立包括住宅、商业、交通和工业等基本模块系统的市(区)级碳流排放数据库；2、采用基于系统动力学的碳流动态建模方法，模拟案例城市(区)能源消耗及其碳排放；3、分析我国城市交通、产业、用地、人口等因子与碳排放的相关规律，探索案例区域新城区碳流强度时序变化与空间分布图景；4、针对案例地区碳流情景模拟分析，提出低碳新城空间规划技术参数体系，探寻可操作的低碳新城空间规划方法。

本研究初步完成了面向低碳新城规划的城市碳排放空间数据库系统设计与建库方法，运用ArcEngine建立小型数据库，对各类新城数据库筛选与入库，并实现了分类存储和查询管理。基于系统动力学与因素分解法的组合建模方法，初步构建了五种不同类型新城（新区型、循环产业型、转型升级型、旅游主导型和小镇新区型）碳排放效应评估模型，并分别结合具体的案例进行情景模拟输出，得出不同情景各要素子系统碳排放的空间分布规律和比例构成等方面的重要结果和关键数据。基于空间规划设计视角，课题组主要从城市水体、绿地、通风廊道、地面覆盖等方面探讨低碳新城空间规划技术参数，采用微气候软件“模拟反推”和“遥感反演”，提出了低碳新城局地规划的部分技术参数，全面系统的参数指标体系有待进一步深入研究。本课题从空间视角初步揭示新城发展容量、土地利用、空间布局、生态环境、综合交通、产业发展等与碳排放之间的内在关系，各类新城碳排放小型数据库开发，碳排放系统动力学模型建构等成果可以应用于城乡低碳规划编制和决策管理等实践当中，一定程度上丰富完善了生态城市的基本原理和规划设计方法。