基于企业异质性的贸易结构升级微观机理模型及实证

China's economic openness develops upon to a new historical stage, promoting innovation-driven economy which regarded as the key issue to achieve the shifing of China's trade structure from major trading nations to strong trading one. Enterprises is the mainstay in technological innovation, and it is the micro-foundation for the upgrading of trade structure. The project aims to explore the microscopic mechanism between technological innovation and trade structure, determinants of enterprises' technological innovation, along with the channel which is to promote China's trade structure upgrade, in particular, the export technological structure. It provides a basis for decision making for enterprises to improve the capability of independent innovation and China's trade structure upgrading..Theoretically, the project starts from the microscopic mechanism, integrating with theories of international trade and innovation economics, dissects impact of underlying causes to trade structure from the perspective of enterprise heterogeneity and investigates the dynamic association of technological innovation and trade structure. From the perspective of research methods, it constructs a general equilibrium model based on enterprise heterogeneity and an endogenous growth model embedded in trade products' technical change, aims to clarify the microscopic mechanism between technological innovation and trade structure, analyzes the dynamic evolution characteristics. On the basis of constituting a comprehensive index system of technological innovation and three-dimensional measurement indicators of trade structure, it applies micro-econometrics method to investigate the interaction mechanism between technological innovation and trade structure, and explores the channel and method of trade structure upgrading.

中国经济开放发展到新的历史阶段，推进创新驱动型经济是实现中国从贸易大国向贸易强国转变的关键。企业作为技术创新主体，是实现转变贸易结构升级的微观基础。本项目旨在探索技术创新与贸易结构之间的微观作用机制、企业技术创新的决定因素、以及促进中国贸易结构（尤其是出口技术结构）升级的渠道，为企业提高自主创新能力和我国贸易结构升级提供决策依据。.理论上，本项目从微观机制入手，融合国际贸易学和创新经济学的相关理论，从企业异质性的角度剖析影响贸易结构的深层次原因，考察技术创新与贸易结构的动态关联。在方法上，构建基于企业异质性的一般均衡模型和嵌入贸易品技术变迁的内生增长模型，研究技术创新与贸易结构的微观作用机理，分析其动态演化特征；在构建技术创新的综合指标体系和贸易结构的三维测度指标的基础上，运用微观计量方法，深入考察技术创新与贸易结构间相互作用机制，并探索贸易结构升级的渠道与方法。

本项目自2013年1月立项起，严格遵守申请书所指定的研究内容与实施计划，对技术与贸易结构之间的微观作用机制、企业技术创新的决定因素以及促进中国贸易结构升级的渠道方面做了理论和实证研究。包括：出口技术结构的测度、中国出口技术结构的影响因素分析以及技术创新与出口结构的相互影响关系；出口贸易、异质性和企业技术进步的模型分析和经验检验；开放条件下异质性和中国企业技术创新决定；基于产业面板数据实证分析外商直接投资的产业技术溢出效应。同时，考虑到宏观经济环境，尤其是金融危机后的国际货币稳定对中国对外贸易的影响，项目组拓展了原来的研究框架，分析了当前发达国家流行的量化宽松货币政策实施效果。