出口专业化对中国经济绩效影响的理论、模型及实证研究

As the internal driving force of export structure upgrading in China, Export specialization can lift the competitiveness of Chinese export sectors in the world market as well as providing strong support for the steadiness and quickness of Chinese economy. In order to do systematic research in export specialization and its economic performance, the project aims to solve some key problems. The first part is to get a reasonable measure of economic performance. This part is to construct economic performance index system based on the clearly defined connotation of economic performance and to measure it combining subjective and objective methods. The second part is to measure export specialization, which will be decomposed to be the intensive margin and extensive margin so that a more accurate and deeper depiction of export specialization will present. The third part is to construct the theoretical models of export specialization and economic performance, namely, Heterogeneous Monopolistic Competition Model, Intermediate Product Economies of Scale Effect Model and Technology Spillover Model respectively for the purpose of deeply analyzing the impact of export specialization on economic performance. The fourth part is to empirically study the impact of export specialization on economic performance in terms of short and long relationship based on the theoretical models. The last part is to provide quantitative basis and decision support for the export strategy selection of export enterprises and upgrade of Chinese economic structure.

出口专业化能够作为中国出口结构升级的内在驱动力，从质的方面提升中国出口部门在世界市场的竞争力，并为中国整体经济平稳、较快发展提供强大支持。为了对出口专业化及其经济绩效进行系统研究，本项目拟重点解决：一是经济绩效的合理衡量，在剖析经济绩效内涵的基础上构建综合评价指标体系，采用主客观方法相结合衡量经济绩效；二是出口专业化的测度，从集约边际和广约边际两个层面对其进行分解，更准确、深入地刻画中国出口专业化程度；三是出口专业化与经济绩效理论模型群的构建。分别构建异质性垄断竞争模型、中间产品规模经济效应模型以及技术溢出模型，深入探究出口专业化对经济绩效的影响；四是基于理论模型，从微观企业、中观行业和宏观国家层面实证研究出口专业化对我国经济绩效的短期相互作用和长期动态变化关系；最后基于以上研究，为企业的出口战略选择和我国经济结构升级提供定量依据和决策支持。

出口专业化作为中国出口结构升级的内在驱动力，可从质的方面提升中国出口部门在世界市场的竞争力。在此背景下，本项目自立项起严格遵守申请书所指定的研究内容与实施计划，对出口专业化和中国经济绩效的微观作用机制、经济发展的决定因素和企业出口的决定因素等方面做了理论、实证和政策三个方面的研究。首先，对中国经济绩效的影响因素进了实证分析，引入创新指标，探究创新与经济增长的关系。然后，在考虑物流发展、研发投入和贸易开放度等多种因素下后，对出口技术结构复杂度进行了测度和实证分析。在此基础上，我们进行了拓展研究。微观方面，项目组对企业定价异质性、企业间商业信用安排和企业出口时机的选择进行了研究；宏观方面，对我国对外贸易的可持续发展能力和开放经济条件下的中国经济发展进行了探究分析。