面向社会-生态脆弱性适应的易灾型流域生态系统服务权衡与管控研究

Research on the ecosystem services and environmental adaption are the international hotspots of ecology and global change science. The research on ecosystem services has made remarkable results, but there is still little comprehensive consideration on the coupling of ecosystem services and social-ecological vulnerability, which restricts the scientific value and application of ecosystem service. Bailongjiang watershed in Southern Gansu, a typical ecotone with fragile nature and diverse disturbance by natural disasters and high intensive human activities, is selected as a case study area to study the ecosystem services management for the adaptation to the ecological vulnerability, based on the remote sensing images and geographical maps, socioeconomic data, field investigation and experimental analysis, via the methods of RS and geo-analysis, Sensitivity-Recovery-Pressure (SRP),Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) and InVEST model. The main research framework is“ecological vulnerability-landslide/debris flow disasters-land use cover change-ecosystem service trade-off-management of human activities and ecosystem service”. The major content including: (1) mapping and spatiotemporal change analysis on ecological vulnerability, landslide/debris disasters and ecosystem services; (2) coupling relationship analysis among the ecological vulnerability, landslide/debris disasters and ecosystem services; (3) tradeoff and synergy of multiple ecosystem service in the watershed, county and typical landslide/debris disasters area; (4) countermeasure and suggestions on the management of ecosystem services and human activities. This proposal plans to answer the two questions as below. (1) What are the key methods for the research paradigm of multiple ecosystem service assessment on multiple scales for the disaster-prone watershed? (2) What are the countermeasure and suggestions on the management of ecosystem services and human activities for the adaptation to the ecological vulnerability and the prevention and control of landslide debris disasters? This research will be useful for the ecological construction and management of human activities in the fragile mountainous areas.

生态系统服务和环境适应是目前国际生态学和全球变化科学研究的热点和难点。生态系统服务研究已经取得较为显著的进展，但耦合生态系统服务与社会-生态脆弱性适应的综合研究较少，制约着相关研究的科学及应用价值。本项目以高度异质破碎化的生态过渡带——甘肃白龙江流域为研究区，基于遥感与地理系统分析、SRP、VSD及InVEST生态模型等，以“社会-生态脆弱性—滑坡/泥石流灾害—生态系统服务权衡—人类活动管控”为主线，拟开展以下研究：（1）社会-生态脆弱性、滑坡/泥石流与生态系统服务时空变化；（2）社会-生态脆弱性—滑坡/泥石流灾害—生态系统服务耦合关系；（3）多尺度生态系统服务权衡与协同分析；（4）流域生态系统服务权衡与人类活动管控对策。研究旨在：（1）发展易灾型流域多尺度生态系统服务评价关键方法；（2）探究环境适应性流域生态系统服务管控策略与途径。本研究可为山区生态建设及人类活动管控提供科学依据和借鉴。

基于遥感与地学空间分析、SRP及InVEST模型等，开展了面向社会-生态脆弱性适应的甘肃省白龙江流域生态系统服务权衡与管控研究。主要结论如下：.（1）1990-2018年白龙江流域生态脆弱性逐渐降低；白龙江武都片区脆弱性较高，流域西北部及东南部脆弱性较低。.（2）1990-2018年白龙江流域生态系统服务呈现明显的空间分异，食物供给、碳储量、产水量和生境质量等总体呈增长趋势。.（3）滑坡/泥石流灾害与流域典型生态系统服务呈负相关关系。自然灾害在一定程度上降低了流域生态系统的支持功能（生境质量）、调节功能（土壤保持、碳储存）和产水及食物供给功能。.（4）白龙江流域1990、2002、2016年食物供给分别与水源涵养、土壤保持、生境质量呈静态显著负相关。水源涵养与土壤保持在1990-2002和2002-2010年间显著正相关，与食物供给的关系则相反。食物供给与土壤保持在2002-2010年间动态显著负相关。.（5）白龙江流域食物供给分别与水源涵养、土壤保持的权衡强度以2002年为拐点呈先增后减趋势；食物供给与生境质量间的权衡强度以及土壤保持、水源涵养和生境质量3者间协同强度先减后增。.（6）白龙江流域典型生态系统服务供给和需求具明显的时空变化；降水、植被分布、地形因子、土壤质地等影响着流域生态系统服务供给能力。.（7）供给侧方面，流域产水-土壤保持供给对为协同关系；食物供给-产水服务供给对、食物供给-土壤保持服务供给对均为权衡关系。需求侧方面，流域产水-土壤保持、食物供给-土壤保持需求对存在权衡关系；产水-食物供给服务需求对呈显著协同关系。.（8）甘肃白龙江流域可分为白水江下游生态保育区、大团鱼河下游生态保育区、白龙江水源与生境保育区、白龙江生态农业区和白龙江农业核心区等5个生态功能区。综合各功能区的社会生态要素、"综合生态效益"影响因素等差异，提出流域生态系统管理建议。.本研究发展了流域社会-生态系统脆弱性及生态系统服务评估方法，可为生态系统服务保育和适应性流域管理提供支撑依据。