农业碳排放区域关联及协同减排机制研究

Agricultural carbon emission reduction is not only an important link to achieve sustainable agriculture, but also an inevitable requirement for China to achieve overall emission reduction targets and overall carbon emission control. Since agriculture has adopted cluster development, industrial chain of agriculture has been extended while agricultural products have been transferred across the regions and agricultural technology spread across the regions, there is a link in agricultural carbon emission among different regions. Therefore, we have to establish coordination among regions to fulfill the goal of carbon emission reduction in agriculture. However, the existing cooperation of regional environment management focuses more on joint control of multiple pollutants and cooperation in fog and haze control. There isn’t any discussion about regional cooperation on agricultural carbon emissions. As a result, how to establish practical and feasible cooperation system for agriculture across the regions becomes a core of this study. Basing on agricultural carbon emission reduction, and theoretic analysis on regional correlation of agricultural carbon emission, we have carried out comprehensive estimation on agricultural carbon emission, and verified the form, reasons and effect of regional correlation of agricultural carbon emission by the data, which laid down a foundation to analyze the possibility of regional cooperation in emission reduction, and find out the obstacles of cooperation in emission reduction. Finally, a basic framework for cooperative regional control mechanism in agricultural carbon emission reduction was built, and insightful theoretic exploration was offered to explore feasible regional low-carbon agriculture cooperation and development mechanism. The study has also laid down a foundation to achieve overall emission reduction in China.

农业碳减排不仅是实现农业可持续发展的重要环节，也是实现我国整体减排目标和碳排放总量控制的必然要求。由于农业产业集群化发展、农业产业链的区域延伸、农产品的跨区域转移和农业技术的区域扩散，区域间的农业碳排存在关联，所以，减排必须通过区域协同行动。然而已有的区域环境管理合作实践更多关注的是多类污染共同控制和雾霾治理合作，未有关于农业碳减排区域协作治理的探讨。所以，如何通过深入挖掘农业碳排放区域关联的情况建立起切实可行的协同减排机制是本研究关注的核心问题。本研究立足农业碳减排，在对农业碳排区域关联理论分析的基础上，对农业碳排做全面测算，并通过数据验证农业碳排区域关联的形式、原因，以及区域关联产生的效应，为分析区域合作减排的可能性，发现合作减排的障碍奠定基础，最终搭建起农业碳减排区域协同治理机制的基本框架，为我国探索可行的低碳农业区域协同发展机制提供了前瞻性的理论探索，也为实现我国整体减排奠定基础.

农业碳减排不仅是实现农业低碳转型和绿色发展的重要环节，也是实现我国整体减排目标和碳排放总量控制的必然要求，由于区域间会通过经济、技术、政策等联系在一起，所以减排无法依靠某一区域的单方面行动取得效果，必须进行区域协调合作。本项目首先构建了农业碳排放测算框架，以便全面准确把握全国和区域农业排放情况；再以此为基础，探讨了农业碳排放与农业经济发展的协调性；然后，跳出基于地理距离或线性特征考察区域碳关联的传统模式，利用社会网络分析法从空间关联视角分析了我国农业碳关联的特征，明确各区域在关联网络中的角色和定位；其次，利用传统杜宾模型和分区杜宾模型着重考察农业技术合作对区域协同减排的影响，既分析了技术合作渠道，又分析了技术合作条件；再次，利用变系数面板模型讨论了区域农业碳关联度的上升对减排成本和区域碳收敛的影响，以此判断区域协同减排的正效应；最后，构建农业碳排放的区域协同治理机制，为区域合作减排提供参考。得到了以下结论：1)我国农业碳排放总量逐年上升，区域差异未有明显扩大，但碳排放强度逐年下降，区域差异明显缩小;2) 我国农业减排增汇效果明显，大部分地区农业经济发展与农业碳排放的协调性模式为一般型，黄河中游出现了“标杆地区”;3)我国农业碳关联网络稳定性高，区域溢出“等级森严”，各地区发挥着不同的作用，发达沿海地区和少数西部地区为碳依赖者，长江中游和西北地区是碳贡献者，中介者分布相对分散，起着连接南北和贯穿东西的作用;4)农业技术溢出作为区域合作减排的重要途径更有可能通过经济渠道发生，既存在“强强联合”，又存在“强弱扶持”;5)农业碳关联与减排成本呈“U型”关系，且碳关联提升可使区域碳收敛，区域间适度的碳关联有利于提升减排潜力；6)提出了“四原则，三机制”的协同减排机制。该研究为探索区域协同减排机制提供了理论探索，为明确各区域减排定位，引导区域间多维合作，激发区域减排潜力，最终实现全国整体减排提供了参考。