面向灾害保险的岷江上游聚落风险模式化认知与应急响应

The risk perception of mountain settlement is one of the key parts for hazard risk control and mitigation management in mountainous area. From the perspective of disaster insurance, taking typical mountain settlement in the upper reaches of Min River as research object, the spatial information of mountain settlement, landslide and debris flow could be extracted by using the remote sensing data and 3S technology. The risk perception of mountain settlement under the threat of landslide and debris flow is made further analysis. The hazard assessment of landslide and debris flow is made, the vulnerability assessment of mountain settlement is analysized, and the risk assessment of mountain settlement under the threat of landslide and debris flow is evaluated. Based on spatial gravity model and potential model, the model of risk pattern perception of mountain settlement is established. From the perspective of disaster insurance, the mechanism of risk pattern perception of mountain settlement in the upper reaches of Min River is made further analysis. From the perspective of risk pattern perception, the threshold of risk degree and disaster insurance rate are scientifically defined. Based on the threshold of risk early-warning and disaster insurance rate, the disaster risk early-warning system in mountainous area is carried out. It explores to build a comprehensive development model of mountain settlement with the independent disaster resistant community as the goal. The research results will provide some theoretical basis and practical guidance for confirming reasonably the spatial range of valley settlements, hazard risk management and targeted poverty reduction in western region of China.

聚落灾害风险认知过程是山区聚落自然灾害风险控制与防灾减灾管理的关键组成部分。以岷江上游为研究区，选取滑坡泥石流胁迫下的山区聚落为研究对象，利用高精度遥感影像资料和3S技术，从灾害保险的视角探析山区聚落与滑坡泥石流的风险属性及其类型归属，开展滑坡泥石流胁迫下山区聚落风险识别、滑坡泥石流危险性评价和山区聚落灾害易损性评价研究。应用空间引力和潜能模型，建立滑坡泥石流胁迫下聚落风险模式化认知模型，科学诠释面向灾害保险的岷江上游聚落风险模式化认知机制，合理界定山区聚落灾害风险阈值；应用前景理论和委托-代理理论，构建基于风险度的山区聚落灾害保险费率厘定模型；建立基于风险度和灾害保险费率的山区聚落灾害风险预警体系，全面发展以自主防灾社区为目标的山区聚落综合发展模式，从而快速响应滑坡泥石流灾害对山区聚落的安全威胁，为我国西部灾害多发区聚落合理规划、灾害风险管理、精准扶贫等工作提供理论依据与科学指导。

本项目选取岷江上游滑坡泥石流胁迫下的山区聚落为研究对象，利用高精度遥感影像资料、滑坡泥石流灾害历史统计数据以及山区聚落的社会经济数据等相关资料，本项目取得了以下进展：.（1）岷江上游滑坡泥石流灾害明显呈条带状沿河流分布，沿大断裂附近发育，高山峡谷地貌区集中发育，且滑坡泥石流灾害规模较大；研究区泥石流物源类型有崩滑堆积体、山体失稳、坡面侵蚀三类，泥石流物源分布表现出距离效应、上下盘效应、锁固效应和方向效应。.（2）灾害易损性作为风险评价的重要部分，是合理控制区域地质灾害风险的关键部分，主要包括人口易损性和建筑物易损性两部分。汶川地震影响、地质灾害影响、社会经济条件、聚落迁移及民族文化的变革深深影响着岷江上游山区聚落地质灾害易损性的变化。在山区发展的同时，确保人民群众生命财产安全和经济社会健康发展。.（3）岷江上游人口易损性值与人口密度成正相关，与万人病床数、万人医生数、人均GDP、监测点、劳动人口比例呈负相关。岷江上游地区建筑物的解译率达到75%以上；该区域的建筑物可分为公共服务、居住、商业和学校四类，其中以居住类建筑物所占的比例最高；建筑物同泥石流沟道的距离差异极大，这体现了岷江上游在建筑物选址时对环境的妥协。.（4）山区滑坡泥石流灾害风险评价是由灾害致灾子系统与孕灾子系统的危险性和承灾子系统的易损性叠加组合而成，结合GIS技术将滑坡泥石流灾害危险性的评价结果和承灾体易损性的评价结果进行叠加分析，最终得到岷江上游滑坡泥石流风险性区划图。.岷江上游地区作为长江上游典型的生态环境脆弱区和山地灾害多发区，区域内山区聚落和滑坡泥石流两者随时间而演化。本项目的研究成果能够为岷江上游山区聚落合理规划和滑坡泥石流灾害防灾减灾工作提供一定的理论支撑和实践指导。