基于气候变化及人类活动的未来流域水资源演变趋势预估研究

Both climate change and human activities have great effects on basin water resources. How to estimate the influence arose from these two driving factors has been the focus of attention in hydrologic science. In this study, the evolution trend projection model for the regional water resources under the impacts of climate change and human activities was built in the Hanjiang Basin by integrated the distributed hydrological model, the downscaling methods of outputs form general circulation models (GCMs) and the technology of generation land use and land cover change scenarios (LUCC). The study including: 1) the results of different statistical downscaling methods was integrated by Reliability Ensemble Averaging and Bayesian Model Averaging (REA-BMA) after comparison of these statistical downscaling methods, in order to improve the simulation results reliability of different downscaling methods which will be inputted to the distributed hydrological model; 2) the driving factors of climate change and human activities were combined by the technology of generation land use and land cover change scenarios based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); 3) the trend of regional water resources under the impacts of climate change and human activities were entirely analyzed by coupled GCMs and LUCC with VIC hydrological model. The research results in this study will be served as a scientific basis for implementing the strictest water resources management system and making the future social and economic development plans of the basin by the relevant government decision-making.

气候变化与人类活动对流域水资源产生了重大影响，估计二者的影响是水科学研究中的热点问题。本研究以汉江流域为研究对象，以分布式水文模型为基础，利用GCMs输出降解技术、土地利用/覆被变化情景生成技术，研制基于气候变化和人类活动的未来流域水资源演变趋势预估模型。研究包括：1) 在对多种统计降尺度方法优劣性比较的基础上，采用基于贝叶斯可靠性加权平均方法（REA-BMA）集成各种方法结果，提高降尺度技术的可靠性；2) 通过基于SRES气候排放情景的土地利用/覆盖变化生成技术，实现气候变化与人类活动两个因素的有机结合；3) 通过GCMs、土地利用/覆被变化与VIC水文模型耦合机制，更加全面的分析气候变化和人类活动情景下未来流域水资源演变情况。本研究成果可为相关职能部门实施最严格的水资源管理制度，制定未来流域社会经济发展规划提供科学依据和支撑。

气候变化与人类活动对流域水资源产生了重大影响，估计二者的影响是水科学研究中的热点问题。本研究以分布式水文模型为基础，利用GCMs输出降解技术、土地利用/覆被变化预测模型，研制基于气候变化、人类活动的未来流域水资源演变趋势预估模型。研究包括：1) 采用分位数映射校正方法和贝叶斯平均方法（BMA）集成各种方法结果，提高降尺度技术的可靠性；2) 采用水文模型与气候模式耦合的方式，预测气候变化条件下流域水资源演变趋势；3) 通过CLUE-S模型，建立土地土地利用变化情景；4) 利用所构建的基于CLUE-S的土地模型与水文模型耦合，评价土地利用对水文响应的影响。本研究成果可为相关职能部门实施最严格的水资源管理制度，制定未来流域社会经济发展规划提供科学依据和支撑。