西行台风影响下云南强降水天气过程的机理研究

Almost every year there are some typhoons influence of Yunnan province, create strong precipitation and mountain flood geological hazard to Yunnan province. By the statistical westward typhoon is one of the seven systems caused by hard rain in Yunnan province. Yunnan’s extreme hard rain was cause by a tropical depression after the typhoon landing. Therefore, study the mechanism of hard rain in Yunnan province cause by tropical depression is very necessary. . The project uses all kinds of observation data 20 years and reanalysis data, through the statistics methods, find out the typhoon path, strength characteristics and atmospheric circulation configuration about the typhoon heavy rainfall in Yunnan province. Choose the typical rain process under the influence of the typhoon in Yunnan province, using the diagnostic and simulation methods to analyze hard rain process，research the weather causes, characteristics of Yunnan the precipitation process of small scale system, reveal the heavy precipitation process triggering and maintaining mechanism, Yunnan rainfall index point and key forecast under inductive westbound typhoon low background, forming a preliminary prediction model of westward typhoon caused heavy rainfall process in Yunnan. The result will provide the scientific basis in Yunnan province of landing typhoon heavy rainfall.

几乎每年都有台风影响云南，给云南造成暴雨及山洪地质灾害。经统计西行台风是造成云南强降水的7大天气系统之一，云南的极值降水为台风登陆减弱后的热带低压造成。因此，进行西行台风系统背景下发生云南强降水的机理研究十分必要。. 本项目利用近20年的再分析资料和各种观测资料，统计分析造成云南强降水天气过程的台风路径、强度特征及环流配置情况；选取典型的西行台风影响的强降水天气过程进行诊断和数值模拟分析，研究此类强降水天气过程的天气成因、中小尺度系统特征，揭示强降水天气过程触发和维持机理，总结西行台风影响背景下云南强降水预报着眼点及关键预报指标，归纳西行台风在云南产生强降水过程的预报模型，为云南台风影响下产生强降水的预报提供科学依据。

几乎每年都有台风影响云南，给云南造成暴雨及山洪地质灾害。经统计西行台风是造成云南强降水的7大天气系统之一，云南的极值降水为台风登陆减弱后的热带低压造成。因此，进行西行台风系统背景下发生云南强降水的机理研究十分必要。过去人们对它活动规律有一些基本认识，有个例研究，但多个例西行台风水汽输送特征统计特征、地形作用、典型环流配置模型和数值模拟研究较少。本项目研究提升了对西行台风活动规律的认识。其中有三个方面的工作较过去有创新：一是对近40年西行进入影响云南关键区的西太平洋台风特征进行分析。二是利用诊断统计方法，对典型西行台风影响下强降水多个天气过程以及近10年影响云南25个西行台风，进行了水汽输送特征分析，总结出云南西行台风型短时强降水的概念模型。三是开展了数值模拟试验，定量模拟地形对西行台风路径和云南省降水的影响。项目已公开发表的论文7篇，定稿发表论文1篇，对相关领域的研究具较好的参考价值。