建筑火灾中人员疏散反应时间序列分析与模型研究

In this project, monitoring video and questionnaire for the evacuation pre-movement time are gotten from literature research, evacuation drills and actual fire case analysis. Dynamic image analysis methods is used to extract characteristic parameters of the evacuation pre-movement time from the monitoring video of evacuation drills and actual fire case, which includes aware of the time, confirmation of the time, recognized time and evacuation preparation time. The statistics results of the questionnaire is used to amend and improve the characteristic parameters of the evacuation pre-movement time. Then, multi-scale time series analysis method is used to build time series model of evacuation pre-movement time, with which we will detailed study the range and timing characteristics of evacuation pre-movement. Combined with the CFE model, a building evacuation model built during the doctoral research stage of the aplication, a whole process evacuation model will be constructed, which includes several important characteristics stage of evacuation, such as aware of the fire, confirmation of the fire, recognized fire time, evacuation preparation time and movement time. Finally, we will detailed simulate three typical architecture, which are public entertainment place, office buildings and residential buildings. By compatative analysis of actual cases and evacuation drills, we will further improve and refine the whole process evacuation model. After that, this model is used to specific study the relation between evacuation response and some typical elements, such as fire development, building structure and environment, personnel characteristics. The aim of this project is to explore the techniques and methods of reducing pre-movement time, improving the efficiency of evacuation, and to achive safety and rapid evacuation in case of fire.

本项目首先通过文献调研、疏散实验和实际火灾案例分析，获得疏散反应时间的监控视频和调查问卷，采用动态图像分析方法从疏散演习和实际火灾案例的监控视频中提取疏散反应时间特征参数（包括察觉、求证、确认、疏散准备等特征时间参数），并用调查问卷的统计结果进行修正完善。然后，基于多尺度时间序列分析方法建立火灾情况下人员疏散反应时间的时序模型，系统地研究疏散反应时间范围及其时序特征，并结合申请者开发的建筑人员疏散模型（CFE），构建包含火灾察觉、求证、确认、行动准备、疏散运动等多个特征阶段的全过程疏散模型。最后，以公共娱乐场所、办公楼、住宅建筑三类典型建筑为例进行精细模拟，并通过与实际案例和疏散演习的对比分析，进一步改进和完善模型，具体研究人员疏散反应与火灾发生发展、建筑结构与环境、人员特征等典型要素之间的关系，探索缩短人员反应时间的技术和方法，提高疏散效率，实现火灾情况下的安全、快速疏散。

本项目通过四年的研究，充分调研了相关文献，开展了实际火灾案例分析和疏散演习，获得了大量疏散反应时间的视频监控和调查问卷，采用混合高斯背景建模、特征角点检测算法，建立了人群聚散行为的检测模型，从疏散演习和实际火灾案例的监控视频中提取疏散反应时间特征参数，并用调查问卷的统计结果进行修正完善。通过综合分析人员疏散反应的特征参数，结合生存时间的基本函数，建立了疏散反应时间Cox回归模型并进行了统计分析，系统地研究了疏散反应时间范围及其时序特征。分别从社会力模型和高层建筑综合疏散模型及优化出发，构建了包含火灾察觉、火灾确认、行动准备、疏散运动等多个特征阶段的全过程疏散模型。最后，通过案例分析和模拟计算，具体研究了影响人员疏散反应的典型要素，探索缩短人员反应时间的技术和方法，提高疏散效率。