开放条件下双边贸易差额的真实利益分析与评估研究

Trade imbalance has become an important cause of bilateral trade friction and the main obstacle of the development of bilateral trade.The deepening of the global value chains specialization and the integration of trade and investment has changed the flow of international trade and the implications of bilateral trade imbalance. In this context, the traditional foreign trade imbalance does not the same as real gains of trade. According to the theory of added value of trade and the theory of the ownership of trade, this study configures two patterns of trade goods, which are final and intermediate goods, and three forms of property of trade goods, which are host country, trading partners and other countries. Furthermore, the evaluation system of the gains from bilateral trade imbalance will be established by combination of the model of gains from the bilateral trade balance and model of GTAP. After that, the gains from the bilateral trade imbalance between China with important trading partners will be analyzed by using GTAP database. As a result, the factors of the patterns and forms of trade goods of gains from the bilateral trade balance will be discussed, and the foreign economic policy effect of gains from the bilateral trade imbalance will be also discussed. Finally, the recommendations to enhance the gains from the bilateral trade imbalance in China will be further developed.

双边贸易平衡是国际贸易双方追求的基本目标。但在贸易实践中,国家之间的贸易不平衡问题十分突出，已成为双边贸易摩擦的重要原因和影响双边贸易发展的主要障碍。贸易投资一体化和全球价值链分工的深入发展改变了国际贸易的流向和结构，也改变了双边贸易差额的内涵和经济意义，传统以国界划分的对外贸易差额概念已经不能反映贸易双边的真实贸易利益。本研究借鉴以全球价值链分工为基础的附加值贸易理论和以投资为基础的权属贸易理论，假定贸易品使用属性可分为最终和中间两种，以及贸易品所有权属性可分为贸易国、伙伴国和第三国三种，结合GTAP模型，通过研究完善双边贸易差额的真实利益分析模型，构建双边贸易差额的真实利益评估方法，并利用GTAP数据库，实证研究中国与主要贸易伙伴国双边贸易差额的真实利益情况，分析我国双边贸易差额真实利益的贸易品权属因素和使用属性因素，评估我国双边贸易差额真实利益的政策效应, 建立比照体系方案，提出政策

近几年，我国几乎都是世界第一大货物进出口大国，一直都是世界第一大货物出口国，但贸易大国并不等于贸易强国。在我国贸易总量惊人增长的背后蕴藏着新的问题，双边贸易差额的真实利益问题就是其中非常突出的一个方面。在现实的双边贸易差额中，我国对美国的贸易顺差倍受关注。基于传统重商主义的思想，课题研究以开放条件下影响贸易差额变动的各方面因素为基础，采用先细分研究影响后综合判断影响程度的技术路线，首先分析了开放条件下贸易转移、贸易重复、国内循环、价格转移和贸易效应对贸易差额变动的影响，然后通过完善贸易条件体系综合评估中美贸易差额的真实利益情况，并从开放利益的视角分析云南开放经济发展。通过分析，全球价值链分工导致的贸易转移、贸易重复和国内循环以及投资贸易一体化引起的价格转移和贸易效应都会使得我国获得的贸易差额在反映贸易利益被高估；通过贸易条件指数的修正，我国对美国的贸易顺差有较大幅度的下降。从中美贸易条件看，贸易利益的分配倾向于美国，我国贸易利益的获得完全是通过要素使用效率提高和要素使用规模扩张来实现的。