非常规突发事件情景演化的舆情涌现机制与人工舆情发生器研究

Based on the inherent demand of the selected case studies in the major integrated platform, “Beijing Earthquake” and “Beijing Infectious Diseases Epidemic”, involved in scenario deductions, we propose to develop data-driven and model-driven artificial systems of mimicking network public opinions and seamlessly integrate this system with the major integrated platform. The system mainly used to produce artificial network public opinions in the evolution of “Beijing Earthquake” and “Beijing Infectious Diseases Epidemic” scenarios. Furthermore, we provide a series of data packets, confirmed to the technical standards and regulations developed by the major integrated platform for data exchange, knowledge representation, rule and model that can be directly called and analyzed by the major integrated platform. These data, knowledge, rule and model are obtained from the scientific analysis of similar unconventional emergencies with “Beijing Earthquake” and “Beijing Infectious Diseases Epidemic”.

面向总集成平台示范案例“北京大地震”和“重大传染病流行”情景在舆情推演方面的内在需求，结合总集成平台的现实情况，研制一套数据和模型混合驱动的人工舆情发生器，实现在总集成平台的无缝集成，模拟北京市突发“地震灾难”和“重大传染病流行”事件后网络上涌现的各类舆情，保障总集成平台示范案例情景演化中的舆情分析、舆情计算与动态推演。同时，根据总集成平台对案例库、知识库、规则库、模型库的技术标准与规范，提供一组可直接为总集成平台调用和分析的数据包，它是根据“北京大地震”和“重大传染病流行”类似事件历史数据的科学分析与提炼，得到的案例、知识、规则和模型。

课题研究了突发公共卫生事件的基本特征与流行规律，并以2013年“H7N9流行”事件和“4.20芦山地震”事件作为案例，开展了网络舆情分析，揭示了此类事件舆情的演化特征、线上—线下呼应模式、信息传播规律与社会影响力，提高了对舆情发生与发展内在规律的科学认识。数据、案例、模型等研究成果以标准的数据库形式集成到重大研究计划的总集成平台。同时，课题组整合了一系列舆情系统技术，针对总集成平台的需求，研发了一套舆情系统工具，并嵌入到总集成平台中，实现了功能与应用方面的集成，满足了总集成平台在舆情监测、分析与推演方面的内在要求。