新疆社会水循环演变与生态-水-经济协调发展调控机理研究——以北疆地区为例

Oriented to sustainable development and ecological civilization , considering the fact that water resources had been overall excessively used and the continued deterioration trend of ecological environment too difficult to curbe effectively in Xinjiang, and the notorious "Aral Sea crisis" taken place in Central Asia whose natural environmental conditions is much similar to or even better than Xinjiang, we mustn't forget the history and should watch out for what happened on our neighborhood of the Aral Sea. From the perspective of social water cycle, this project would like to integrate the concept,theory and modeling methods of social water cycle, water footprint, ecological footprint,and applying interregional Input-Output analysis，GIS，hybrid LCA，multivariate data statistics，field survey and multi-source data colletion,to interpretate quantitatively and reveal profoundly the evolution laws of the structure, process, flux of social water cycle, land & water and agriculture & animal husbandry development policies and eco-environment in the past 30 years of North Xinjiang,then to excavate the coupling interactive mechanism between social water cycle and eco-environment changes in North Xinjiang. Based allover the above, combined with the planning and allocation program of land & water development, we will try to re-analysis water allocation pattern between economic and ecological environment in different districts, total water that can be extracted and "deadline" of irrigation area development scale in North Xinjiang, and explore the harmonious development scheme of economic - water - ecological,regulation programs which would ensure achieving the goals of Leapfrog development and the "new industrialization, agricultural modernization and new urbanization" in North Xinjiang. This program will try to provide some scientific information and decision-making suggestions for guaranteeing the harmony between human being and water,to build a beautiful and fertile North Xinjiang.

基于新疆水资源利用整体过度、生态环境恶化趋势难以有效遏制及与其各类条件较为类似的"咸海危机"等事实，以史为鉴，以邻为镜，以可持续发展与大美新疆建设为导向，从社会水循环演变和经济-水-生态协调发展的视角，集成社会水循环、水足迹、生态足迹等理论方法，多源收集各类系列数据，综合区域间投入产出分析、GIS、混合LCA、多元数据统计、田野调查等技术手段，以北疆为研究区建立定量分析序列，深入揭示北疆近30年来社会水循环的结构、过程、通量变迁及其与水土/农牧业政策变化、生态环境嬗变之间的定量关系，挖掘其社会水循环与生态环境演变的耦合机理与响应机制；在此基础上，结合现有水土开发配置、规划，对北疆经济用水与生态环境用水的配置格局、用水总量与灌溉面积规模"红线"进行再分析，探索保障北疆又好又快发展的经济-水-生态协调发展机制与调控方案，为新疆人水和谐、生态文明的持续发展决策提供参考依据。

项目研究4年来，严格按照资助计划书既定目标与内容，以水足迹和生态足迹作为评估分析指标，通过对新疆北部地区近50个县市区的分布式计算，建立了共逾30年的分析序列，构建了研究区2012年社会水循环I-O分析表，开展了基于混合LCA模型的水足迹测算方法研究和实际计算，详细分析了新疆北部地区社会水循环的结构、过程与通量演变过程，从社会水循环典型用水户、用水单元、用水行业（30个部门）和整个研究区等多层面分别建立了研究成果序列，系统分析了影响研究区社会水循环结构、过程与通量演变，通过多因素分析定量探索了研究区社会水循环的变化机理、社会经济与水资源利用对生态环境的作用机理。结果表明：30年来，研究区社会水循环通量总体呈现不断上升趋势，其结构经历了“向工业转化”又回归到“向农业扩大”的变化历程；在这一过程中，各时期各种政策的出台对研究区生产/消费模式和社会水循环演变发挥了重要的“引导（或推动）”作用；研究区社会水循环通量增加并不主要由区内需求导致，而是区外需求驱动，研究区社会水循环系统通量中至少50%通过产品被转移到新疆以外，导致了研究区较为严重的生态环境问题；基于这些认知，项目首次创新性提出了以“自然-社会-贸易”为核心特征的“三元”水循环模式。水足迹与生态足迹的定量耦合分析定量证明：在研究区存在着“建立1个人工绿洲需要2~3个天然绿洲的消亡作为代价”的现象；为促进研究区社会经济-水资源-生态环境的健康协调，综合考虑项目研究成果、国家水土资源持续开发利用部署与措施，提出以大力发展高效节水为基础，到2030年研究区需退减灌溉面积776万亩的调控方案。截止2018年底，本项目资助：共发表期刊论文19篇（含接收、已投稿），其中SCI文章11篇，中文核心8篇；获得专利4个；项目组成员获省部级科技进步一等奖3项；人才培养方面，1人当选为中国工程院士，3人获得职称晋升，培养博士后、博士各1名，培养博、硕士生各3名。