当前中国经济不平等程度与机制研究

Economic inequality in China has been increasing rapidly in the past 30 years. The growing gap between the rich and the poor puts great pressure on Chinese society's continuation of economic growth and social stability. Reduction of income inequality and poverty has become a major common concern among policy makers, scholars and the public. Nevertheless, there is no agreement on the degree and the causes of economic inequality in China. Government agency and different academic institutes have released Gini coefficients that differ widely. The existing explanations of the growth of economic inequality remain to be verified empirically. Moreover, there is no prediction on the trend of economic inequality in the long term because of lack of quality panel data. The proposed research aims to fill these gaps by answering four questions. First, what is the current extent of economic inequality of China today? Second, what are the causal mechanisms for the recent growth of economic inequality? Third, how has the inequality level changed over time? And forth, to what extent inequality in China is reproduced by family origin? Based on the project of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), the proposed research will collect data on income and wealth at both individual and family levels. It will use advanced quantitative methods to evaluate the inequality level, to explore the causal mechanisms of the inequality, and to predict changes of the inequality level in the future. In addition, the proposed research will also examine the issues of poverty and intergenerational mobility.

中国最近30年的经济不平等程度的快速上升对中国的经济发展和社会稳定提出了挑战，并成为学术领域关注的重要议题。然而，由于样本的代表性、调查的独立性、测量工具的选择、数据分析方法的使用等因素的影响，目前中国不同学术研究机构以及官方发布的基尼系数相差很大，对中国经济不平等的程度缺乏一致而准确的估计；由于缺乏高质量的跟踪调查数据，当前学术领域对造成经济不平等程度加剧的因果机制的探索和验证仍然有限，对经济不平等状况的未来发展趋势也未能作出科学合理的预测。本研究将以"中国家庭追踪调查"（CFPS）项目为平台，通过独立收集数据并开展量化分析研究，对中国经济不平等的真实程度做出科学合理的评估，并对经济不平等的因果机制及发展趋势给出科学的解释与预测，从而为国家经济发展政策提供科学依据。此外，本研究对中国当前的贫困水平、代际流动水平等经济不平等现象中的专题也将做更深层次的研究。

研究组成员以“中国家庭动态跟踪调查”（CFPS）项目为平台，通过独立收集数据并开展量化分析研究，从收入、住房、家庭、教育等方面，对中国经济不平等现象的因果机制及发展趋势提出了科学的解释及判断。同时，对经济不平等中的代际传递、个体发展等问题进行了深层次的探讨。研究组成员还指出，目前中国已进入“财产不平等”阶段，原有的不平等机制被打破。综上所述，本项目采用严谨的统计方法与分析模型，从宏观、微观角度对主题开展全面研究，为当前中国经济不平等的研究提供了丰富的量化研究参考，突破了当前该领域研究的瓶颈，弥补了理论上对此问题认识上的缺陷，为政策制定和学术讨论提供了有力的科学依据。项目资助发表英文论文14篇（其中SSCI收录7篇，顶级期刊 Science 1篇，PNAS 1篇），培养博士生2名、博士后2名。项目投入经费56万元，支出42.85万元，各项支出基本与预算相符。剩余经费13.15万元，剩余经费计划用于本项目研究后续支出。