基于数值模拟的雅砻江流域风能资源多尺度耦合评估方法研究

Due to the insufficient observation data, large basin area and complex terrain for the Yalong river, the traditional wind resource assessment method based on observational data such as meteorological station is not applicable. However, refine numerical simulation method is highly dependent on computing resources, which is difficult to assess the wind resources in the whole basin. So we raise the model technology system based on WRF/CALMET coupling, it adopts multiscale nested coupling method so as to realize hierarchical and progressive wind energy resource assessment for the Yalong river. The use of mesoscale numerical models can be a good way to overcome the problem of insufficient data. Moreover, the impact mechanism of complex terrain on wind field can be described in detail via hydrodynamic analogy. And the multi scale coupled wind energy resource assessment method can reach the balance between computing resources and evaluation results. To get the following data through this project study: preliminary assessment of wind resources resolution within 3 km of the whole river basin, assessment of horizontal resolution region of 1km at wind enrichment region and conclusion of fine wind resources assessment for 100 meter wind farm. The development of the project research and its academic achievements have certain theoretical and reference significance for building clean energy base in Yalong River Basin.

针对雅砻江流域观测资料缺乏、流域面积大、地形复杂，传统基于气象站等观测资料的风资源评估方法难以适用，精细化数值模拟方法计算资源依赖度较高，难以对全流域开展风资源评估的问题，提出基于WRF/CALMET耦合的模型技术体系，采用多尺度嵌套耦合的方法，实现分层次递进式的雅砻江流域风资源评估。利用中尺度数值模式可以很好的克服资料缺乏问题，引入流体动力学模拟方法可以详细模拟复杂地形对风场的影响机制，提出的多尺度耦合风资源评估方法可以获取计算资源与评估效果之间的平衡。拟通过项目研究获取全流域3km水平分辨率的风资源初步评估、风资源富集区水平分辨率1km的区域风资源评估以及风电场100m水平分辨率精细化风资源评估结论。项目研究的开展与产出的研究成果，对雅砻江流域风光水清洁能源基地相关建设内容具有一定的理论与参考意义。

雅砻江流域水能资源富集，调节能力突出，是我国规划的大型水电基地之一，规划总装机容量约3000万kW，目前下游1470万kW 梯级水电站已经建成投产。根据最新的风能和太阳能资源普查成果，流域范围内风能和太阳能资源较为丰富，且水风光出力的互补特性明显。由此，雅砻江流域水电开发有限公司（简称雅砻江公司）决定开展雅砻江流域风光水互补清洁能源示范基地（简称“示范基地”）的建设，依托雅砻江流域水电开发，统筹开发流域范围内的风能和太阳能资源，实现多种清洁能源优势互补和打捆送出。.本项目围绕雅砻江流域风能资源多尺度评估开展了部分探索性的研究工作，构建了雅砻江流域中尺度数值天气模式WRF，利用多层嵌套技术，实现了雅砻江全流域3km水平分辨率的气象场模拟，对边界层、微物理等参数化方案进行扰动，优选了适合雅砻江流域风场模拟的参数化方案组合。利用2000年以来的NCEP FNL资料驱动WRF模式，同化气象站、测风塔、卫星遥感等观测资料，实现了雅砻江流域80米高度处的风能资源初步评估。同时，本项目详细分析了影响风电场建设成本的诸多要素，提出了考虑风电场建设成本的风能资源富集区识别方法，初步开展了雅砻江流域风能资源富集区识别工作。本项目基于富集区识别结论，利用WRF-Calmet耦合模式，对重点区域开展了百米级风能资源详细评估，并初步选定了适宜前期开发的若干风电场。本项目选择牦牛山一期和二期风电场，开展了风电场内风能资源评估，并据此初步设计了风机布局等重要内容，估算了风电场发电量等重要参数，有望为雅砻江流域风能资源开发提供了一定的参考。