人群聚集区域公共安全应急的多部门协同模式及预案生成模型研究

The public security emergency management problem in a crowd-gathered place has already drawn a great attention in recent years. Based on the realistic background of public security emergency management in a crowd-gathered place and the research status of emergency management theory at home and abroad, the multi-agency collaborative modes and plans generation models of public security emergency response in a crowd-gathered place are studied in this project. Firstly, some basic problems of the public security emergency response in a crowd-gathered place is studied and the corresponding theoretical framework is provided. Secondly, the emergency response regularity of multi-agency collaboration is studied, and the methods for analyzing organizational structure of multi-agency collaborative response and constructing the corresponding network model are provided. Then, the method for constructing the emergency capacity allocation models based on multi-agency collaboration and plans generation models are given, and the algorithms for solving these models are also provided. Further, the method for constructing decision support system generating plans based on above models and algorithms are given. Finally, based on the emergency response cases of police department in crowd-gathered places, some practical studies is conducted to illustrate the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed multi-sector collaborative modes and plans generation models. This project is going to achieve high level research fruits, develop and improve emergency management theories and methods.

近年来，人群聚集区域的公共安全应急管理问题已经引起人们的高度重视。基于人群聚集区域公共安全应急管理的现实背景以及国内外研究现状，本项目对人群聚集区域公共安全应急的多部门协同模式及预案生成模型进行研究。首先，针对人群聚集区域公共安全应急的若干基础问题进行研究并给出人群聚集区域公共安全应急响应的理论分析框架；其次，研究人群聚集区域公共安全应急的多部门协同响应规律，确定多部门协同应对的组织架构及网络模型；然后，给出考虑多部门协同的应急能力分配模型和应急预案生成模型的构建方法与求解算法；进一步地，基于所提出的模型与算法，研究应急预案决策支持系统的构建方法；最后，以公安系统中面向人群聚集区域应急响应的相关案例为依据，对所提出的多部门协同模式及应急预案生成模型进行实际应用研究，验证其有效性和实用性。通过本项目研究，拟取得一系列具有较高水平的研究成果，丰富和发展应急管理理论与方法。

本项目研究面向人群聚集区域公共安全应急的多部门协同模式及预案生成模型，具有重要的理论意义和实际意义。通过近三年来的本项目研究工作，取得了较为丰硕的研究成果，其主要体现在四个方面：进行了人群聚集区域公共安全应急的若干基础问题研究；进行了人群聚集区域公共安全应急的多部门协同模式研究；提出了多种各具适用性的应急预案生成模型和应急决策模型；给出了针对所提出的应急决策模型与方法的应用研究。通过本项目的研究，较好地完成了预期制定的研究计划，达到了预期研究目标，与已有同类研究成果相比，达到了较为先进的水平。在本项目研究中，出版专著2部，项目负责人作为第一或通讯作者发表学术论文共10篇，其中在国际主流期刊上发表论文1篇，在国家自然科学基金委管理科学部认定的重要期刊上发表论文2篇，在CSCD收录期刊上发表论文6篇。本项目研究工作的完成，对进一步发展和完善人群聚集区域公共安全应急管理理论与方法做出了贡献。