中国区域食品源氮足迹及其隐含环境污染转移调控研究

Nitrogen’s regional cycling which has been increasingly driven by human food production and consumption becomes an international hotpot of regional sustainability study. However, for now there are few studies on the food sourced nitrogen footprint and embodied environmental pollution transferring in China which has become the largest country of human sourced nitrogen emission in the world. Taking the 31 provinces and cities of China mainland as study areas, the proposal of the study tries to integrate individual regional nitrogen emissions and its environmental effects from food production and consumption with nitrogen footprints driven by cross-regional food trades: (1) to build regional dynamics model of food sourced nitrogen footprint by combining material flow analysis (MFA) and multiple regional input-output analysis (MRIO) methods; (2) to simulate and characterize the spatial and temporal dynamics of food sourced nitrogen footprint, to evaluate its environmental effects based on techniques of GIS and spatial analysis; (3) to develop comprehensive regulation strategies of regional food sourced nitrogen footprint and embodied environmental pollution transferring by system dynamic simulation and “source-sink” landscape theory for the need of national regional development polices. Our study will provide scientific supports for formulating rational pattern of regional food trade, mitigating environment impacts from human induced nutrient flows, and establishing cross-regional ecological and environmental policies.

氮的区域循环过程逐渐受到人类食品生产消费活动的驱动，成为区域可持续发展研究热点，我国作为世界最大的人为氮排放国家，对食品源区域间氮足迹及其隐含环境效应相关研究还较为少见。本研究以中国大陆31个省市为研究对象，通过将单个区域内食品生产和消费过程引起的氮排放及其环境效应与区域间商品贸易引起的食品源氮足迹相结合：（1）综合物质流和区域投入产出分析方法，构建食品源氮足迹区域动态计算模型；（2）结合GIS与空间分析技术，模拟、分析我国食品源氮足迹区域时空动态特征，并评估其引起的环境效应；（3）基于“源汇”景观原理，面向国家战略需求，通过系统动力学情景模拟，提出区域食品源氮足迹及其隐含环境污染转移的可持续调控策略。为制定合理的粮食流通格局，控制人为营养物质区域流动引起的环境问题，实施跨区域生态环境调控政策提供科技支撑。

氮的区域循环过程逐渐受到人类食品生产消费活动的驱动，成为区域可持续发展研究热点，我国作为世界最大的人为氮排放国家，对食品源快速城镇化城市家庭消费，山地区域生产和消费，以及跨区域时空动态氮足迹及其隐含环境效应相关研究还较为少见。本研究分别以城市（厦门市）、省域（福建省）以及国家（中国大陆31个省市）三个尺度为研究对象，通过将单个区域内食品代谢过程引起的氮排放及其环境效应与区域间商品贸易引起的食品源氮足迹相结合：（1）综合物质流和区域投入产出分析方法，构建了厦门市家庭消费、福建省生产和消费以及中国大陆31个省市跨区域生产和消费的食品源氮足迹区域动态计算模型；（2）结合GIS与空间分析技术，模拟、分析我国31个省市食品源氮足迹区域时空动态特征，并评估其引起的环境效应；（3）基于“源汇”景观原理，面向国家战略需求，通过系统动力学情景模拟，提出区域食品源氮足迹及其隐含环境污染转移的可持续调控策略。为制定合理的粮食流通格局，控制人为营养物质区域流动引起的环境问题，实施跨区域生态环境调控政策提供科技支撑。