最严格水资源管理制度约束下流域初始水权耦合配置方法研究

With the deficiency of existing allocation methods of basin initial water rights, taking provincial initial water rights and basin-level governmental reserved water as objects, the study researches the method of basin initial water rights allocation in the perspective of coupling under constraint of the strictest water resource management system. First of all, regarding to the allocation subsystem of initial water rights among provinces, this research calculates initial water rights of different provinces by establishing the coupling model of water quantity and quality on the principle of "rewarding efficiency and penalizing inefficiency " based on the two control objectives of water quantity and quality. Secondly, regarding to the allocation subsystem of basin-level governmental reserved water rights, the study forecasts the demand of basin-level governmental reserved water rights by combination of case-based reasoning and water supply quotas. Then, the bilateral coupled allocation model on water supply and demand is designed after supply analysis to get basin-level governmental reserved water rights. Thirdly, to secure the coordinated development of this two subsystems, the research establishes iteration coupling model based on coordinated degree criterion to get the recommended scheme of basin initial water rights allocation. Finally, this research method is applied to Daling River Basin to verify the feasibility of the model and put forward related policies and suggestions. The method owns the advantages of complying with basin initial water rights allocation mechanism and meeting the control requirements of water quantity, water quality and water utilization efficiency, which help to achieve effective allocation of water resource.

面向最严格水资源管理制度约束，针对现有流域初始水权配置方法存在的不足，以省区初始水权和流域级政府预留水量为主要研究对象，基于"耦合"视角，研究流域初始水权配置方法。首先，针对省区初始水权配置子系统，基于水量水质双控制目标，建立基于奖优罚劣原则的水量水质耦合配置模型，计算获得流域内不同省区的初始水权量。其次，针对流域级政府预留水量配置子系统，建立基于案例推理法和定额法的组合预测模型对"需求量"进行预测，并在分析"供给量"之后，构建基于供给需求双侧耦合的配置模型，计算获得流域级政府预留水量。再次，为保障两个子系统协调发展，建立基于耦合协调度判别准则的循环耦合模型，获得流域初始水权推荐方案。最后，针对大凌河流域进行实证分析，验证模型的可行性，并提出政策建议。该方法具有符合流域初始水权配置机理，保证配置方案满足用水总量、用水质量和用水效率控制要求等优点，有利于实现水资源的有效配置。

我国人多水少，社会经济的快速发展和全球气候变化导致水资源供需矛盾日益突出。2011年我国提出实行最严格的水资源管理制度，并确立了水资源开发利用、用水效率、水功能区限制纳污等三条控制红线。流域初始水权配置理论与实践必须适应最严格水资源管理制度的新要求。本项研究面向最严格水资源管理制度约束，针对现有流域初始水权配置方法存在的不足，以省区初始水权和流域级政府预留水量为主要研究对象，基于“耦合”视角，研究流域初始水权配置方法。首先，针对省区初始水权配置子系统，基于水量水质双控制目标，以用水总量控制、用水效率控制和纳污量控制为基准，将省区初始水权量质耦合配置分为逐步寻优的三个阶段：确定用水总量控制约束情景下的省区初始水量权配置方案；构建基于纳污控制的省区初始排污权配置模型，分类确定不同减排情形下的省区初始排污权配置方案；构建省区初始水权量质耦合配置模型，确定省区初始水权量质耦合配置方案。其次，针对流域级政府预留水量配置子系统，基于政府预留水量与流域初始水权配置的相互关系，构建政府预留水量需求规模预测模型，进而得到政府预留水量需求的预留规模水量；基于政府预留水量结构优化配置原则，对“需求量”和“供给量”进行分析，构建基于供给需求相互耦合的政府预留水量配置模型，计算获得流域级政府预留水量。再次，为保障两个子系统协调发展，建立基于耦合协调度判别准则的循环耦合模型，分析省区初始水权量和政府预留水量的依存关系，建立耦合协调性判别准则，构建水权配置量调整的优化决策模型，获得满足所有判别准则的流域初始水权推荐方案。最后，针对我国大凌河流域进行实证分析，测算省区初始水权及政府预留水量配置方案，验证模型的可行性，并提出政策建议。该方法具有符合流域初始水权配置机理，保证配置方案满足用水总量、用水质量和用水效率控制要求等优点，有利于实现水资源的有效配置。