北方农牧交错生态脆弱区农户生计分化对农地利用的驱动机制研究

Livelihood–environment linkages are at the center of academic attention, and an understanding of their linkages is important for effective environmental policy and decision-making. Irrational land use of farm household is considered to be the direct cause of ecological degradation in agro-pastoral ecologically-vulnerable areas in North China. In the process of industrialization and urbanization, most of farmers participated in non-farm activities, resulting in Livelihood diversification of farm households has been increasing steadily in China, and gradually become the main driving factor of agricultural land use. The uncertainties and complexity of the impacts of livelihoods of farmers on agricultural land use are reflected in the extensive literature on the subject, but there is a big controversy about the mechanism and effects, and academic researches lack of full explanation of land use decision-making process and mechanism of farm households. In this study, we propose to select three counties located in southern Inner Mongolia, Zhengxiangbaiqi County, Taipusiqi County and Duolun County, as the case sites of the agro-pastoral ecologically-vulnerable areas in North China, by using the rural household survey data obtained by the Rural Fixed Investigation Team of Ministry of Agriculture of PRC and our experienced rural survey team, and applying the sustainable livelihoods framework, cost-benefit analysis, land-use decision model and other tools to analyze the status and the dynamic of farm households’ livelihood in the study area, study the agricultural land use behaviors and the characteristics from planting structure, agricultural land use intensity, land use right transferring, and abandonment of land. Finally, we attempt to establish a farm household land use decision-making model to comprehensively examine the effects of livelihood diversification of farm households on their agricultural land use decisions. The findings can provide academic basises for making appropriate schemes to spport the ecological protection, agricultural production and rural development in the ecologically-vulnerable areas.

农户不合理的土地利用方式被认为是引起我国北方农牧交错生态脆弱区生态退化的直接诱导因素。在工业化和城镇化过程中，农户普遍参与非农就业，导致农户生计分化现象突出，且逐渐成为农地利用的主要驱动因素。学术界已经从不同侧面揭示了农户生计对农地利用的影响，但对其中的机制和影响效果存在较大争论，并且缺乏全面解释农户土地利用决策机制的理论框架和工具。本研究选择位于内蒙古南部的正镶白旗、太仆寺旗和多伦县为研究区，采用农户调查数据和农村固定观察点住户调查数据，运用可持续生计框架、成本收益分析、数学建模等手段，定量分析我国北方农牧交错生态脆弱区农户生计的现状与演变规律，研究农地种植结构、经营权流转、农地利用集约度、弃耕撂荒等农户土地利用行为，构建农户农地利用理论框架和决策模型，解释农户生计分化对农地利用决策的驱动机制，研究成果可为制定生态脆弱区生态保护、农业生产和农村发展政策提供学术依据。

农户生计分化已成为我国农村经济社会的突出现象。农户作为主要土地使用者，其决策过程是土地系统变化的直接原因。本项目选择内蒙古中南部的正镶白旗、太仆寺旗和多伦县为研究区，在60个行政村开展实地调研和问卷调查，获取215个农户样本数据和190个农户住户调查数据，并进一步核算农户生计资本，分析农户生计特征、土地利用行为、以及二者之间的关系。研究结果显示：（1）兼业户和非农就业户占样本总数的64.7%，农户参与非农就业现象较为普遍。纯农户人力资本较低，自然资本较高，而兼业户和非农就业户的人力资本相对较高,非农就业户的物质资本和金融资本相对较高。（2）非农收入占比与劳动力数呈显著正相关关系，与人均耕地面积呈显著负相关关系。人力资本和自然资本分别对农户生计分化有着正向和负向的驱动作用。农户生计资本是农户生计分化的“推力”、“内力”，存在非农就业机会等外部经济因素是造成农户生计分化的“拉力”、“外力”。（3）纯农户转出土地的意愿极低，而非农就业户倾向于转出土地。务农劳动力占比、非农务工劳动力占比、农业机械数、务农收入占比、非农收入占比、劳均耕地面积、块均耕地面积等各类生计资本是影响农户土地转入和转出决策的关键因素。（4）随着生计分化程度的增加，耕地利用的生产要素投入强度呈递减态势，但是兼业户的耕地利用效率显著高于纯农户和非农就业户。农户生计资本与生计分化程度显著影响耕地资本集约度。非农就业户对土地的资金投入显著高于其他类型农户。（5）农户对生态资源和生态空间的占用均与其收入有显著相关关系。非农就业收入占比越大，农户对自然资源的影响会下降，说明改变农户牧业生产方式、促进农户参与非农就业会减小对当地生态资源的占用。农牧交错生态脆弱区土地利用和生态保护政策制定应充分考虑农户生计变化，进一步促进农户非农就业实现生计多样化，鼓励农户土地流转，加大生态补偿力度，推动实现保护与发展的“双赢”。