高速铁路调度指挥系统协同理论、预警机理、报警控制及可靠性评价研究

High-speed railway dispatching system is the central component of high-speed railway, responsible for managing and controlling daily train operations and transportation activities. A highly reliable railway dispatching system with comprehensive cooperation control and risk management is of great importance to ensure safe and normal operation of high-speed trains under all weather conditions. The proposed project aims at conducting a systematic study on the theory and application related to highway speed dispatching, including risk assessment emergency alerting and response management, and system reliability analysis. Specifically, the project will analyze the functional requirements of a high-speed railway dispatching system and investigate the cooperative mechanism among the dispatching system’s vertical hierarchies, lateral sub-systems, individual dispatching stations, and that between high-speed railways and existing lines. Next, a quantitative approach will be proposed to analyzing the risk of high-speed railway dispatching system, including identification of inherent risk factors and computation of risk from multi-factors. In addition, a three-dimensional risk model and control strategy based on various risk factors will be established for high-speed railway dispatching. Besides, theories and methods for emergency response decision-making of high-speed railway dispatching system will be developed. Finally, new reliability evaluation system and standards for high-speed railway will be established, with the assistance of a robust reliability evaluation methodology and a risk ranking system for both administrative and technical decision-making and operating environment.

高速铁路调度指挥系统是高速铁路的神经中枢，担负着组织指挥高速铁路列车运行和日常运输生产活动的任务。构建具有高可靠性的高速铁路调度指挥系统，实现系统的协同控制和风险管理，对于保障高速铁路列车运行安全和全天候正常运营具有重要的意义。本项目拟系统开展高速铁路调度指挥系统协同理论、风险分析预警及控制、报警及应急处置机制、系统可靠性评价等方面的研究。提出高速铁路调度指挥系统纵向层级层次协同、横向专业子系统主辅协同、高速铁路各调度所间及高速铁路与既有线调度指挥系统间合作协同的理论与方法。研究高速铁路调度指挥系统危险源辨识及风险等级划分方法，建立系统风险三维分级预警模型，提出风险控制策略。研究高速铁路调度指挥系统报警与应急处置响应机制，提出高速铁路调度指挥应急决策处置理论与方法。建立高速铁路调度指挥系统结构可靠性、管理决策可靠性、运行环境可靠性评价指标体系，提出可靠性评价标准和评价方法。

高速铁路调度指挥系统是高速铁路的神经中枢，担负着组织指挥高速铁路列车运行和日常运输生产活动的任务。构建具有高可靠性的高速铁路调度指挥系统，实现系统的协同控制和风险管理，对于保障高速铁路列车运行安全和全天候正常运营具有重要的意义。本项目拟系统开展高速铁路调度指挥系统协同理论、风险分析预警及主动安全控制等方面的研究。. 本研究构建了高速铁路调度指挥系统组织架构有序度模型，提出了高速铁路调度指挥系统协同模型。研究了危险因素辨识及风险等级仿真，构建了高速铁路调度指挥危险源数据库及危险源辨识方法。构建了列车调度员疲劳生成模型和疲劳发展模型，设计和实现了自适应图像处理和疲劳程度检测算法。构建了高速铁路调度指挥系统中时序型风险的复杂网络模型，提出了基本Petri网系统中变迁节点的全局重要性评价指标及算法；初步构建了基于复杂系统脆性理论的安全预警模型。基于列车运行实绩，建立了高速铁路初始晚点分布模型和晚点影响模型。. 基于改进的模糊时间函数研究了运行干扰发生情况后列车运行图的冲突类型判定、冲突可能性度量方法，提出了列车运行图冲突预测方法，得到了高速铁路列车运行冲突的预测结果。分别建立了区间能力部分失效和完全失效情况下的列车运行实时调整建模，采用高效的求解算法和优化软件CPLEX求解模型，结合京沪高速铁路的实际数据以及随机假设的干扰场景对列车实时调整的结果进行了计算，并且给出了各干扰情景下的列车运行实时调整图。. 理论研究成果获得了中国铁路总公司认可，并于2016年获得立项依据本项目理论成果研发高速铁路调度指挥实时风险分析预警系统，并最终实现与高速铁路调度指挥系统的融合并实用。