山地社区地震及次生地质灾害风险的参与式评估与治理试验研究

Community as the cells of human life is also one of the basic unit of disaster risk reduction activities. Building community resilience to disasters is now receiving increasing attention in both academic and practical fields internationally. Focusing on earthquake and earthquake-induced geo-disasters, the project will be conducted at several western Chinese mountainous communities that are in danger of earthquake and/or associated geological hazards and disasters. Using participatory approach to bridge the gaps between the researchers and local people and through broad communication and cooperation with all stakeholders in local communities, the project firstly is to attempt to develop various participatory tools and construct participatory and applicable information network platform for disaster risk assessment that are appropriate to local actualities and meet the requirements of this project; then to characterize collectively the specific earthquake and earthquake-induced geo-disaster risk scenarios in these communities, and establish the models for governing these scenarios. This project aims at enriching and accumulating associated research experience and knowledge that is urgently needed in the Chinese academic community for the following two aspects: (1) the approaches to conducting community-based participatory disaster assessment and governance of disaster risks that are appropriate to the context of Mainland China and (2) the basic model, principles, and/or characteristics of community level earthquake and earthquake-induced geo-disaster risk governance in the context of mountainous communities in Mainland China.

社区是人类生活的基本单元，也是减灾的基本单元，社区减灾是当前减灾研究与实践领域的一个焦点。以我国西部地区“有、无”新近地震经历且地质灾害多发的几个山地社区为例，以社区中的地震及次生地质灾害风险为关注对象；基于参与式研究范式，将研究者置身于当地情景，使当地社区成员提升为共同研究者；通过研究者与社区成员之间的广泛沟通与交流；首先针对当地社区实际和本课题研究需要，对参与式研究具体技术方法进行本地化发展，搭建利于社区成员切实参与的实用信息网络平台；然后合作评估与构建目标社区的地震及次生地质灾害风险情景，实践社区成员广泛参与治理（Governance）相应风险的具体途径、内容、环节和模式；为丰富和积累对如下两方面问题的认识，提供试验研究经验——①适合中国大陆背景的社区参与式灾害风险评估与治理研究技术方法与手段，②适合中国大陆山地社区实际的社区参与式地震及次生地质灾害风险治理一般原则、特点和模式。

社区是人类生活的基本单元，也是减灾的基本单元，社区减灾是当前减灾研究与实践领域的一个焦点。本课题基于学科交叉视角，综合利用多元感知、参与式方法、问卷调查等多种技术手段，开展了社区地震灾害风险评估技术方法、社区民众地震灾害意识测量、社区民众备灾机制等方面的研究。研究结果如下。.1.基于多元感知的地震灾害风险评估方法和工具。课题以房屋震害风险分析为例，发展了基于遥感与社感融合和人工智能技术的房屋暴露量及其脆弱属性参数提取系列技术，实现了基于机器学习和考虑多脆弱属性参数的房屋地震灾害风险估算手段，从而建构了一套基于多元感知和人工智能的房屋地震灾害风险快速分析系列方法和工具。.2.基于问卷调查的民众地震灾害意识测量。课题编制与研发了系列化的民众地震灾害意识调查与测量问卷，在陕西渭南、四川雅安、青海果洛进行了问卷调查；基于分析结果，针对“改善宣传教育提升民众地震灾害意识”问题，提出了几条具有全国范围普适性的政策/对策发展建议。.3.基于问卷调查的社区民众备灾机制研究。基于问卷调查数据，课题构建了一个调节-中介效应模型来探讨社区民众风险沟通、备灾知识水平、灾害应对自我效能、备灾行动之间的影响与作用机制。根据模型路径分析，提出了促进农村社区民众灾害准备的建议。