基于协同演变的高拱坝多维度变形预警指标研究

Determination of scientific and reasonable deformation early-warning index plays a critical role in ensuring the safety of high arch dam. Due to the large size and numerous influence factors, both the single-point deformation and the holistic deformation need to be monitored. The multi-dimensional monitoring of the deformation, including the point, the line, the surface and the body, was generally not involved in current researches. In order to meet the safety requirements of both the point and field monitoring, this project aims to apply synergistic evolution mechanism of high arch dam to study the deformation early-warning index of high arch dam based on numerical simulation and measured data analysis. The main contents are as follows. Firstly, the monitoring criterion and control loads are researched based on synergistic theory. Secondly, by considering some uncertain factors, the interval monitoring model are established to calculate the early-warning index of deformation for single-point. Thirdly, based on synergistic evolution mechanism of spatial deformation field, the holistic deformation entropy, which described the spatial variation of the dam, is formulated in view of the principal of synergetics and information entropy, while the early-warning index of deformation entropy, which acts as a critical value of deformation, is computed by low probability method. Lastly, an early-warning hierarchy of multi-dimensional deformation including point, line, surface and body is established to conduct a fully monitoring and control of the dam by combining the deformation early-warning indexes of both single-point and spatial field.

拟定科学合理的变形预警指标是保障高拱坝安全运行的关键。高拱坝由于体型庞大、影响因素多，不仅需要监控单测点变形，更需要掌握结构整体变形性态，而现有研究难以达到“点、线、面、体”的多维度变形监控。项目基于数值仿真、原位监测资料分析，探索高拱坝变形协同演变机理，同时对“单测点”和“空间场”变形预警指标展开研究，以满足“点安全”和“场安全”的多层次监控要求。具体包括：基于协同理论，研究大坝监控标准，确定控制荷载集；考虑不确定性影响因素，建立大坝区间变形监控模型，拟定大坝“单测点”变形预警指标；基于空间变形场协同演变机理，构造高拱坝“空间场”整体变形熵表达式，用小概率法拟定“空间场”熵预警指标，作为监控大坝整体安全的警戒值；将“点”与“场”变形预警指标相结合，建立涵盖“点、线、面、体”的高拱坝多维度变形预警体系，对大坝进行全面监控。

我国拥有世界上规模最大的高拱坝，部分坝高甚至达到300m级，由于工程一旦失事，将给人民生命财产和国民经济造成重大损失。因此，如何保证高拱坝的安全性，已成为一个越来越突出的问题。从安全监控角度而言，拱坝变形值综合反映大坝安全性态，拟定科学合理的变形预警指标是保障高拱坝安全运行的关键问题之一。高拱坝体型和规模庞大，不仅需要对单测点进行监控，还需要掌握整体变形性态，而现有研究难以达到“点、线、面、体”的多层次变形监控。项目基于数值仿真、原位监测资料分析，探索高拱坝变形协同演进机理，同时对“单测点”和“空间场”变形预警指标展开研究，以满足“点安全”和“场安全”的多层次监控要求。具体包括：基于协同理论，研究大坝监控标准，确定控制荷载集；考虑不确定性影响因素，建立大坝区间变形监控模型，拟定大坝“单测点”变形预警指标；考虑空间场变形协同有序演变，构造高拱坝“空间场”整体变形熵表达式，用小概率法拟定“空间场”熵预警指标，作为大坝整体安全的警戒值；将“点”与“场”变形预警指标相结合，建立兼顾高拱坝局部变形监控与空间场变形监控的多层次变形预警体系，对大坝进行全面监控。项目提出了高拱坝多层次变形预警的理论和方法，能满足大坝从局部变形性态到整体变形性态的多层次变形预警要求，可为工程运行和管理单位提供具有参考价值的决策依据，形成的相关的理论和方法可推广应用于类似工程，对提高我国拱坝监控和预警水平，具有较重要的意义。