区域电网冰冻灾害中的电力线路覆冰预测管理理论研究

In recent years, the ice coating disasters of electric power circuit have caused great loss to the economy and life in our country, which highlights the lack of research on early warning system for electric power circuit ice coating. It has important scientific significance and application prospect to study the ice coating influence mechanism and change rules of electric power circuit in the regional power grid freezing disasters under the different natural environment conditions, and the advanced and effective management method and theory of electric power circuit ice coating forecasting. It can prevent the freezing disasters of electric power circuit in advance, ensure the safety of power grid operation and maintain the social security and stability. All in all, the research is one of the key problems which are urgent need to solve in the economic and social. The main research contents include: building the index system of electric power circuit ice coating influence factors in all kinds of areas by studying the ice coating influence mechanism in the regional power grid freezing disasters, establishing the comprehensive forecasting models of electric power circuit ice coating that are adaptive to the change rules of ice coating, high precision, and adaptive optimization intelligently, establishing the intelligent risk assessment models of electric power circuit ice coating for early warning of freezing disasters, setting up the early warning system in the condition of electric power line ice online monitoring. Through the study of the above contents, we expect that we can form an advanced electric power circuit ice coating forecasting management theoretical system with Chinese characteristics. In addition, we expect we can improve the forecast accuracy and the early warning mechanism of ice coating significantly to make our own contribution to reducing the freezing disasters of regional power grid, guaranteeing the power supply and maintaining the economic development and the people contentment.

近年来的电力线路覆冰灾害，给我国经济和生活造成了巨大损失，凸显了我们对电力线路覆冰预警不足的严重问题，研究区域电网冰冻灾害中的电力线路在不同自然环境条件下的覆冰影响机理和变化规律，以及先进有效的电力线路覆冰预测管理理论方法，对于提前预防电力线路冰冻灾害、保障电网安全运行、维护社会安全稳定具有十分重要的科学意义和应用前景。是经济社会中迫切需要解决的关键科技问题之一。 主要研究区域电网冰冻灾害中的电力线路覆冰影响机理和确定各类区域中的影响因素指标体系、建立适应覆冰变化规律的高精度电力线路覆冰智能自适应优选综合预测模型、用于预警灾害的电力线路覆冰智能风险评估模型、电力线路覆冰在线监测状态下的预警系统等方面内容，期望能够构成先进的具有中国特色的电力线路覆冰预测管理理论体系，较大提高覆冰预测准确性，完善预警机制，为我国区域电网防冰减灾、保障供电、维护经济发展和人民群众安居乐业做出自己的贡献。

按照计划书设计，由于近年来的电力线路覆冰灾害，给我国经济和生活造成了巨大损失，凸显了我们对电力线路覆冰预警不足的严重问题。研究区域电网冰冻灾害中的电力线路在不同自然环境条件下的覆冰影响机理和变化规律，以及先进有效的电力线路覆冰预测管理理论方法，对于提前预防电力线路冰冻灾害、保障电网安全运行、维护社会安全稳定具有十分重要的科学意义和应用前景。是经济社会中迫切需要解决的关键科技问题之一。 主要研究区域电网冰冻灾害中的电力线路覆冰影响机理和确定各类区域中的影响因素指标体系、建立适应覆冰变化规律的高精度电力线路覆冰智能自适应优选综合预测模型、用于预警灾害的电力线路覆冰智能风险评估模型、电力线路覆冰在线监测状态下的预警系统等方面内容，期望能够构成先进的具有中国特色的电力线路覆冰预测管理理论体系，较大提高覆冰预测准确性，完善预警机制，为我国区域电网防冰减灾、保障供电、维护经济发展和人民群众安居乐业做出自己的贡献。本项目经过四年研究，依托湖南电网、江苏电网、浙江电网等支持，完成了规定的研究内容，发表了被标注的SCI检索论文16篇，EI检索论文2篇，中文核心2篇，完成了著作2部，并已和出版社签订了出版协议，获得省部级科技成果奖3项、省电力公司科技进步奖1项。