淮河流域农户土地利用行为对水环境的影响机理研究

Non-point source pollution from agricultural land use is an important source of water pollution. As the micro subject of agricultural land use, farm-households have vital influences on the water environment through their behaviors. So it is of great significance to study the impacts of their land use behaviors on water environment. However, previous studies mainly focused on the effects of land use change on water environment. There is a need to strengthen the mechanism research on the impacts of farm-household land use behavior on water environment. In this respect, the present research will select the typical regions with quite serious non-point source pollution in the Huai River basin as a case study, conduct farm-household interviewer-administrated questionnaires, monitor water quality and point source emissions of typical non-point source pollutants (TP, NH3-N) and collect their historical data, then employ statistical analysis to analyze the contribution of non-point source pollution from farm-household land use to water pollution; a theoretical model of the impacts of farm-household land use behavior on water environment will be constructed by theoretical analysis and process analysis; empirical studies will be carried out with statistical model and comparative analysis; scenario simulation will also be used to simulate the water environmental effects of farm-household land use behavior under different economic policy stimulus and environment perception; in the end, policy recommendations will be proposed on guiding farm-households to select water environment-friendly land use behavior. The results will be not only conductive to reveal the inherent mechanism between human activities and changes in basin water environment, but also beneficial to make scientific decisions on water pollution control.

农业土地利用产生的非点源污染是水污染的重要来源。农业土地利用的微观主体是农户，因此农户行为对水环境有重要影响。从农户角度开展土地利用行为对水环境的影响研究具有重要意义。前期研究主要针对土地利用变化的水环境效应，农户土地利用行为对水环境的影响机理研究有待加强。本研究在非点源污染较严重的淮河流域选取典型研究区，开展农户访谈式问卷调查；监测非点源特征污染物（总磷、氨氮）的断面水质及点源排放量，并收集其历史数据；采用统计分析法，分析农户土地利用产生的非点源污染对水污染的贡献；通过理论分析与过程分析法，构建农户土地利用行为对水环境影响的理论模型；采用统计模型与对比分析法，开展实证研究；采用情景模拟法，模拟不同经济政策刺激与环境感知下农户土地利用行为的水环境效果；最后提出引导农户选择水环境友好型土地利用行为的政策建议。成果既有利于揭示人类活动与流域水环境变化的内在机理，也有利于水污染控制的科学决策。

农业土地利用产生的非点源污染是水污染的重要来源。农业土地利用的微观主体是农户，因此农户行为对水环境有重要影响。从农户角度开展土地利用行为对水环境的影响研究具有重要意义。前期研究主要针对土地利用变化的水环境效应，农户土地利用行为对水环境的影响机理研究有待加强。本研究在非点源污染较严重的淮河流域选取沙颍河、里下河、沂河子流域为典型研究区，开展了农户访谈式问卷调查；监测了非点源特征污染物（总磷、氨氮）的断面水质及点源排放量，并收集其历史数据；采用统计分析法，分析了农户土地利用产生的非点源污染对水污染的贡献；通过理论分析与过程分析法，构建了农户土地利用行为对水环境影响的理论模型；采用统计模型与对比分析法，开展了实证研究；采用情景模拟法，模拟了不同经济政策刺激与环境感知下农户土地利用行为的水环境效果；最后提出了引导农户选择水环境友好型土地利用行为的政策建议。成果既有利于揭示人类活动与流域水环境变化的内在机理，也有利于水污染控制的科学决策。