“三北”防护林工程坝上段生态效率评估与造林格局优化研究

This study aims to analyze the dynamic changes of the forests and forest ecosystem services in the Bashang region during 1980-2015, carry out cost-benefit analysis and ecological efficiency assessment of Three-North Shelter Forest Program, and put forward policy suggestions for optimizing the forestry ecological projects. First, we will integrate the belt transect survey data and remote sensing data, determine the assessment criteria of forest ecosystem services in the study area, and construct the hierarchical index system of ecosystem services based on the theories and methods of Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). Then, we will carry out the input-output performance evaluation of the afforestation and the natural vegetation recovery, construct the ecosystem resilience assessment model and assess the potential of vegetation to recover naturally. Thereafter, we will assess the environmental performance of the afforestation and the natural vegetation recovery and measure the ecological efficiency of afforestation with the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), analyze the range of technical inefficiency, and identify the key influencing factors of the technical inefficiency. Finally, we will design scenarios of natural vegetation recovery with the positive mathematical programming (PMP), simulate the spatial pattern of forests in the regions with technical inefficiency, clarify the boundaries of regions suitable for afforestation, natural vegetation recovery and natural vegetation conservation with the System for Identifying and Zoning Ecosystem Services (SIZES), and propose policy recommendations to improve and optimize the engineering design of Three-North Shelter Forest Program and the sustainable management of forests.

本研究旨在厘清1980-2015年“三北”防护林工程坝上段林地及其生态系统服务功能的时空变化特征，评估工程建设生态效率，决策支持林业生态工程建设优化。本研究集成多源遥感监测数据与研究区样带监测及室内分析结果，基于千年生态系统评估(MA)方法构建层式化指标体系，建立研究区森林生态系统服务功能的评估标准，揭示其变化规律；构建并估计随机前沿分析(SFA)函数，评估人工造林的生态效率，测算其技术无效率区间并识别其关键影响因素，分析人工造林与自然植被恢复的投入产出绩效，建立自然植被恢复力评价模型评价恢复潜力；基于实证数学规划(PMP)方法，实现林地规划目标下人工造林格局的优化，开展情景设计并基于土地系统动态(DLS)模型推演其林地空间格局，利用核心生态系统服务功能辨识与分区系统(SIZES)识别人工造林、自然植被恢复、天然林保育的适宜边界，决策支持研究区林业生态工程建设与管理的优化。

三北防护林工程是一项重要的生态工程，准确把握“三北”防护林生态工程的造林格局及其生态效益，对实现资源合理优化配置，可持续实施管理具有重要的指导意义。本研究厘清了“三北”防护林工程坝上段林地及其生态系统服务功能的时空变化特征，评估了三北工程建设生态效率，以支持林业生态工程建设优化。本研究集成了多源遥感监测数据、资源环境统计数据、社会经济统计年鉴数据、访谈数据与研究区样带监测及室内分析结果，基于千年生态系统评估(MA)方法构建层式化指标体系，建立了研究区森林生态系统服务功能的评估标准，揭示了其变化规律；构建并估计了随机前沿分析(SFA)函数，评估了人工造林的生态效率，并识别了其关键影响因素，分析了人工造林与自然植被恢复的投入产出绩效，建立了自然植被恢复力评价模型评价恢复潜力；实现了林地规划目标下人工造林格局的优化，开展了情景设计并基于土地系统动态(DLS)模型推演了林地空间格局，利用核心生态系统服务功能辨识与分区系统(SIZES)识别了森林保育的适宜边界，能够支持研究区林业生态工程建设与管理的优化决策。依托项目，共发表高水平论文14篇，第一标注4篇（其中SCI/SSCI论文4篇）、培养博士研究生和硕士研究生6人。在该项目的资助下，项目组成员多次参与国内外学术会议并进行成果展示，共进行会议报告8人次，参加国际学术会议5人次。