宏观经济中资金流程的离散事件仿真

This project is on the simulation of macro economy. Taken the micro participants in the economy as agents, the project simulate their behaviors on the computer so as to get the funds flow among them and the movements of macro economy indexes. Adopting the discrete event simulation, we have developed two simulation models to investigate the macro economy status on the condition of various personal income and consume styles and that whether those bad-performance companies quit or stay on the market. In this project, several microsimulation techaniques have been investigated and compared, a simulation platform for complex systems simulation named Swarm developed by the SFI ate studied and applied to stock market simulation. So the project has make contributions on the theory and practice of economy simulation. Some critical problems on how to simulate the economy by discrete event simlation, such as the setup of simulation models, realization of simulation models and analysis of simulation outputs, have been solved. At last, the research is also good to how to simulate the macro economy from the micro participants behaviors.

本项目首次提出了将离散事件系统仿真技术应用于宏观经济中资金流程的模拟及预测，在计算机上如实地模拟资金流动的真实过程，得到在不同经济参数、不同政策力度以及外来资金扰动时资金流动的变化情况。为经济政策的制定及防范与化解金融风险提供依据，它为经济领域的离散事件仿真开创了先例，也为仿真技术的深度和广度发展作了实质性的创新。