以新能源消纳最大为目标的宁夏电网源-荷互动调峰机理研究

Ningxia was successfully granted in 2012 to be the first new energy comprehensive demonstration district, which is the base for the creative development of new energy. According to its planning, the installed capacity of batch-type new energy worked in parallel operation in Ningxia will be ten million kilowatts with the rate of 30%. This will make the power system harder to improve the peak load regulation, which may threaten the security and economy of power system operation and even lead to abandon wind resource. Hence, it is necessary to study a new and creative method of peak loads regulation under this condition. The author purposes a new method, based on the power system in Ningxia featuring more translational heavy loads and controllable constant current, to improve the acceptance of new energy by interacting the peak loads among heavy loads. This project will firstly concentrate on building the short-term and mid-term forecasting model of total power of batch-type new energy to accurately forecast the need of peak loads regulation. Secondly, it will construct the interaction model by analyzing the productive process of heavy loads and the planning process of DC loads. On this basis, then it will establish two heavy loads interaction patterns: the dynamic peak-valley difference and peak load regulation platform. Meanwhile, it will provide optimal methods and model of daily scheduling based on the interaction among heavy loads. Finally, the implementation scheme of interaction platform will be presented. The interaction of peak loads among heavy loads, with enormous economic benefits and social values, will exceedingly improve the acceptance of new energy and will lay the theoretic foundation for making policy of accepting new energy.

2012年宁夏获批成为国家首个"新能源综合示范区"，担负着创新新能源发展模式和体制、机制的重任。根据规划，宁夏并网间歇式新能源装机容量将达千万千瓦，占总装机三分之一强。这将使系统调峰压力激增，可能引发大量弃风，急需创新调峰技术和机制。根据宁夏电网可平移（控制）大负荷、可调节直流（送端等效为负荷）较多的特点，笔者提出了通过大负荷（含直流）互动调峰，提升新能源消纳能力的思路。项目拟首先探求区域间歇式新能源中期和短期总功率预测模型，实现对调峰需求的精准预测；然后分析各种典型大负荷生产过程、直流负荷计划过程，建立互动成本模型；而后在次模型基础上建立"动态峰谷差"和"调峰交易平台"两种大负荷互动模式，建立含大负荷互动的日前计划优化方法和模型；最后提出互动平台实现方案。大负荷互动调峰是提升新能源消纳能力的经济成本最优方案，项目成果将为新能源消纳政策创新奠定理论基础，经济效益和社会效益巨大。

宁夏回族自治区是国家首个“新能源综合示范区”，目前风电、光伏装机容量已达1600万千瓦，占总装机容量近二分之一，系统调峰压力大，急需创新调峰技术和机制。项目完成了预定的研究目标，提出了源-荷互动实施模式、策略、流程和方法，解决了互动调峰的基础问题；同时，超额开展了宁夏新能源并网直流外送的稳定特性及控制风险问题研究。项目定量研究了地区风电统计特性，定量分析了地区电解铝、铁合金等典型负荷的互动特性；提出了混沌理论与RBF神经网络结合的风功率预测算法；提出了一种以直流联络线运行方式优化提升新能源消纳能力的新模式；提出了提升新能源消纳的动态峰谷分时电价机制；提出了热负荷互动调峰建模及优化方法；完成提升新能源消纳的互动平台方案设计。项目执行期共发表论文4篇；申请发明专利8项（4项获得授权），出版《新能源绿色调度》专著一本，相关成果已在自治区政策制定和调度实际运行中得到应用。