基于物理化学过程和生态毒理机制的地表水化学品泄漏计算工具研究

Chemical spills of various sizes happen everywhere in the world nowadays as a result of natural or man-made disaster events due to unprecedentedly paramount production, storage and usage of chemicals, which has been identified as a big challenge to human existence and development, and thus has been drawn elevated attention. Based on works from both pioneers and our research group, this proposal aims to studying further three basic and key problems identified in the natural surface water environment and resulted from developing “computational tools of chemical spills in surface water environment” by the usage of many disciplines and methods. The three basic and key problems are: transport – transformation of chemicals in natural surface water environment, mainly sorption – desorption by sediments and biodegradation and their mathematical description; bioaccumulation of chemicals and its acute eco-toxicity in real surface water environment and their mathematical equations; and jointly numerical modeling of flow, sediment transport, chemical transport – transformation and acute effects of chemicals on aquatic organisms. It can provide reliable simulation tools for practical application, and evaluate and predict responses of water infrastructure systems (reservoirs, lakes, rivers and drinking water resource area) from chemical spill/spreading incidents due to accidents and /or purposeful attacks. It can also assess and predict the effect of emergent mitigation measures of water infrastructure systems on chemical spills/spreading. Moreover, the knowledge and technology developed in this project can serve the world to protect water infrastructure systems in other places and study both emergent management measures and scenarios of restoration and rehabilitation.

化学品泄漏事故（包括利用化学品进行恐怖袭击）已成为威胁人类生存和发展的重大问题。本项目针对目前本领域存在的不足，在前人研究工作和课题组多年研究积累的基础上，多学科和多手段结合，围绕研究、开发和形成“地表水化学品泄漏计算工具”中的三个关键问题开展基础研究：（实际）地表水环境中化学品物理化学行为及过程，主要是吸附–解吸、微生物降解及其数学描述；地表水环境中化学品生物吸收富集、生态毒性（急性）及其数学描述；集成的水流、泥沙、化学品及化学品生态毒性联合数值模拟模型。本项目研究将提供可靠、实用和面向服务体系的模拟工具，评估和预测水环境基础设施（如水库、湖泊、河流等饮用水源地）在有毒化学品泄漏事故中的响应、舒缓应急管理措施的效果，同时为国家、地区指挥中心快速反应服务。而且，本项目发展的技术能够应用到世界其它地区水基础设施保护、灾害应急管理和恢复方案研究中。

项目结合水力学、环境化学、生物学等学科的基本原理和方法，在前期工作的基础上，针对“水－鱼食－化学品（蒲草净）－藻（铜绿微蓝藻）－鱼（鲫鱼）”系统，分层次，系统研究其中的相互作用。改进逻辑斯蒂方程以满足初始条件，提出“结合改进的逻辑斯蒂方程和莫诺方程”研究藻类生长，导出一系列方程，如藻密度、生长速率、比生长速率和消耗营养盐浓度，营养盐浓度随时间变化、莫诺方程参数计算方法。采用逻辑斯蒂方程描述鱼体重（体长）增长率、（消耗）营养盐浓度随时间变化，导出鱼体重（体长）增长率随营养盐浓度变化和随消耗营养盐浓度变化的计算公式。研究发现，扑草津浓度、鱼食投加方式可使限制性营养盐发生转化；改进鱼食质量，多次投食，能够提高养殖效率，同时改善水环境质量。.结合水力学、环境化学、环境生态学及环境区划的基本理论和方法，以水功能区控制单元为基础，结合子流域划分工作单元。采用PSR模型构建环境风险源危险性指标体系，进行流域环境风险源识别及其危险性等级评价。增加“环境风险源下游特征”指标以考虑到风险源流经下游重要性不同的水功能区（工作单元）对其本身危险性等级的影响。结合指标数据、标准和权重，采用模糊综合评价法计算风险源的危险性（和工作单元的脆弱性等级）。采用本项目模型，建立工作单元危险性等级评价方法。工作单元危险性等级由两部分，即本单元风险源的危险性等级和上游风险源通过河流对下游工作单元危险性的影响。结合工作单元的危险性和脆弱性等级，通过风险矩阵评价工作单元的风险等级。在此基础上，在同一水功能区控制单元，合并风险相同的工作单元，实现流域风险评价区划。.本项目共取得成果16项，其中英语期刊论文7篇，中文期刊论文4篇，国际会议论文2篇，第二作者英文书1本，取得软件著作权1份，申请发明专利1个。其中第5篇英文文章，第8篇中文文章各有8次他引；通过本项目共已培养本科生、研究生11名。