基于动态风险的重大工业事故应急行动分析及优化方法

In major industrial accident emergency preparedness and emergency response process, the emergency response actions and their cooperation are key issues. In view of the problems of emergency response action analysis and assessment, a dynamic risk based analysis method is presented in this proposal. The emergency response risk is utilized to evaluate the impact of emergency response action on the development of an accident. The proposal includes the research on emergency response risk model and corresponding risk assessment method, major industrial accident evolution mechanism under the emergency response circumstance, the network topology and accident escalation mechanism of the accident evolution, and establishing a layered accident evolution model; the research on characteristics and cooperation modes of emergency response actions, the risk-based hybrid Petri-net analysis method, and establishing emergency response actions and their cooperation analysis model by considering the dynamic characteristics of emergency response action and risk; the research on emergency response action analysis according to the target of minimizing emergency response risk, and optimization of emergency actions plan. The research of this project will have an important role to improve emergency preparedness of major industrial accidents, to develop a reasonable and efficient emergency action plans.

在重大工业事故发生后的应急响应和事故发生前的应急准备中，应急行动及其协同都是关键问题。针对重大工业事故应急行动分析和评估的难题，本项目提出基于动态应急响应风险的分析方法，这是一种新的思路，即利用应急响应风险来衡量应急行动对事故发展演化的影响。本项目主要研究应急响应风险模型及风险评估方法，以及应急响应条件下事故的演化机理，分析事故演化的网络拓扑结构与蔓延机制，建立分层的事故演化模型；研究应急行动的特征和协同模式，以及风险混合Petri网分析方法，考虑应急行动和应急响应风险的动态变化，建立重大事故应急行动及协同分析模型；以应急响应风险最小为目标对应急行动进行分析，优化应急行动方案。本项目的研究对改善重大工业事故的应急准备，制定合理高效的应急行动方案具有重要作用。

本项目针对重大工业事故应急响应的分析和评估问题开展研究，具有重要的理论意义和实际意义。通过四年的研究，取得了丰硕的研究成果，主要包括以下几个方面：提出了重大工业火灾和爆炸事故蔓延的建模和风险分析方法；提出了概率Petri网建模方法并开发了概率推理算法；提出了基于Petri网的重大工业事故应急响应过程建模和性能分析方法；提出了基于Petri网的应急行动及其协同模型；提出了应急行动对事故演化的影响分析方法。通过本项目的研究，较好地完成了预期的研究计划，达到了预期研究目标，发表了学术论文18篇，其中在国际重要学术期刊上发表论文15篇，培养已毕业硕士研究生3人。本项目的研究，对发展和完善应急响应或应急救援分析的理论和方法做出了贡献。