重大毒气泄漏事故应急预警决策支持方法研究

Recent years, major toxic gas leak accidents happended frequently in China, which caused large number of casualties and property losses.In this project,we will consider major toxic gas leak accidents happened in the petroleum and chemical industries. There are two main parts in this project: firstly,individual risk of leak scenario is qualified based on analysis of the evolution mechanism and its impact on human vulnerability, and then parovide a layout optimization model for terminal of receiving warning based on the proposed evaluation system. Secondly, the dissemination characteristics and the influence factors of warning are studied based on social network and emergency network analysis, and then the select strategies and optimization method for emergency warning information dissemination are analyzed. Decision model and partition management method is studied for emergency warning notification target area based on a risk assessment and multi-objective optimization theory. Meanwhile, warning notification optimization model for regional evacuation is built based on emergency evacuation network and evacuation behavior analysis. The study will help achieving better theory frameworks and research methodologies for terminal allocation and notification decision-making of emergency warning, and provide methods and technical support for practical emergency warning decision-making against toxic gas leak.

近年来，我国重大毒气泄漏事故时有发生，由此导致的伤亡人数和经济损失相当惨重，给社会带来严重不良影响。本项目针对重大毒气泄漏事故，研究事故情景演化规律及对人体脆弱性的影响，以事故区域内的公众这一核心承灾体为研究对象，从多个角度量化事故风险；建立预警终端部署策略评价指标体系，构建部署策略的优化模型；研究社会关系和人员疏散运动交互影响下事故预警信息传播机制，分析应急预警信息发布方式的选择策略及优化方法；基于风险评估及多目标优化方法，研究应急预警目标区域动态决策模型及分区管理方法，同时，结合应急疏散网络和疏散人员行为分析，构建应急疏散路线通知策略的实时调整与多目标优化模型。研究成果可为预警终端资源优化配置及预警发布与通知策略制定提供更符合实际的理论框架和研究方法，从而为实际重大毒气泄漏事故预警决策提供方法和技术支持。

近年来，我国重大毒气泄漏事故时有发生。本项目针对重大毒气泄漏事故，考虑事故情景对个体的影响机制以及预警信息的传播特征等因素的影响，建模分析适合此类事故情景的预警终端部署与预警通知策略的动态多目标优化决策模式和方法。该项目的主要成果包括：重大毒气泄漏事故个体风险评估模型；重大毒气泄漏事故预警终端部署双目标优化模型与模拟分析；重大毒气泄漏事故预警通知目标区域动态决策模型与模拟分析；疏散路线通知策略的实时调整与多目标优化模型与模拟分析。上述研究成果可为实际重大毒气泄漏事故情景的预警终端部署、预警信息发布方式以及预警信息制定等提供更符合实际的研究方法和理论支持。