基于二层结构的水量水质联合模拟调控模型研究

Water pollution becomes more complicated with more intensive human activities. Characteristics of natural water cycle and different pollutant sources produced by socioeconomic process make the attributes of water pollution more compound. Both water cycle, especially the in-stream flow process, and the pollutant sources effect the water quality in the rivers. It is difficult to control water pollution only by reduce the contaminants into rivers or regulate the water flow. However, it is still no perfect method to find the suitable integrated measures and strategy to realize compromised solution for both pollution control and water supply. To probe a feasible approach to realize the joint control on water quality and water quantity, the integrated regulation model of joint operation on water quality and water quantity is presented based on bilateral balance of water cycle and pollutants accompanying with water cycle. On macroscopic layer, the pollutants produced by human activities are forecast based on relation analysis of economic water utilization and pollutants production. The pollutants discharged to different segments of rivers according to the distribution of sewage drain outlets. On microscopic layer, the process of water cycle and pollutants diffusion, conversion and degradation is simulated based on water balance and pollutants balance. The model for pollution control is developed according to objective programming in terms of water function areas' requirements. Key technique is studied with the trade-off analysis on scheme combination of water consumption, reduction of economic activities, clean production, treatment of sewage and regulation of in-stream water flow. Cost and benefit of each measures and their combination are calculated to find the optimal solutions to satisfy the water function areas' objective on water quality. The strategy on total quantity control of pollutant discharge and water consumption is figured out based on the joint regulation model. Practical means in case study to carry out the strategy and methods on effect evaluation are put forward to materialize the framework.

根据自然过程和人类活动干扰下的水循环和多源复合污染迁移转化特征，以水量和主要污染负荷的双重平衡为基础，提出微观层面实现水循环过程和主要污染物迁移转化过程模拟、宏观层面实现水功能区目标总量调控的水量水质联合模拟调控模型。在宏观层面，以考虑用水分配的水量配置型为基础模拟不同用户用耗水和河道水量过程，根据社会经济用水特征分析污染负荷的总量排放规律，分析水功能区断面的主要污染负荷入河总量；在微观层面，以河道干流为基础进行水量平衡和水动力学过程的模拟，根据水量过程模拟主要污染负荷的迁移转化过程，形成从宏观层面水量水质控制到微观模拟的双层次耦合。基于水功能区目标控制提出水量水质总量调控方案构建技术，在分析水量平衡过程及其对污染物产生运移转化等机理影响的基础上，选择关键性总量指标制定水量配置、污染负荷控制治理措施的有效组合,提出基于因子设计和敏感性分析的水质水量调控方案评估技术，并通过实例应用进行验证。

用水对河流水环境具有两方面影响，一方面是对水量过程改变导致纳污能力变化；另一方面是用水导致的污染物排放。现有的水量配置缺乏对这两方面影响因素的同步考虑，因而难以从技术角度分析合理的水量水质联合调控措施及其效果。同时，已有的流域级大范围水量水质分析受计算规模的限制，只能通过关键性因素建立模型，近似的模拟污染物入河量状况，与实际相差较大。针对上述问题，本研究以水量和污染负荷双平衡下的水量水质联合模拟为关键科学问题，研究提出了以水量和主要污染负荷的双重平衡为基础的水量水质联合模拟调控模型，对水质水量的联合模拟调控涉及对水量过程、水质模拟过程的联合分析。.研究内容包括对水量需求、污染负荷产生的预测、水量过程的配置模拟、污染控制措施的优化组合，对河流水质达标状况的分析评价。通过以水量水质总量控制目标为主线将上述研究内容关联，不同模块通过模型分析完成，并通过模型之间的数据交互反馈形成可供整体分析的模型体系。在多层次方案设置和反馈基础上实现对水质水量联合调控的模拟分析，提出水量水质总量调控方案构建技术，并通过实例应用进行验证，形成成套的水量水质联合调控技术方法。.通过研究形成了水量水质联合模拟调控的整体框架，包括对现状水资源利用、废污水排放及水污染状况的评价，不同发展模式的需水预测和供需分析，纳污能力分析，污染负荷产生机制分析与优化控制。通过建立水量模拟调控模型，提出了不同节水水平水量配置方案下的水功能区重点断面水量过程，计算水功能区纳污能力和水质，根据水功能区达标状况提出水量调控和污染负荷削减的反馈制定总量控制方案和指标。建立点源污染优化控制模型，根据水功能区达标状况，制定污染负荷的削减策略，实现从总量控制目标到区域与行业的合理分解以及源头控制、污染源排放优化控制和末端治理的优化组合，最终对实施方案的效果进行评估分析。