变结构大规模航天测控网络任务可靠性建模与分析方法研究

Spaceflight telemetry, tracking and control (TT&C) network is an important platform supporting the smooth communication between satellites and ground stations. The success of some spaceflight missions, such as the orbit injection and the satellite monitoring, largely depends on the reliability of the platform. Since Phased-array antennas and replaceable equipments will be installed in the new-generation TT&C network, the network will become large-scale and more complex. And the reliability analysis of the new TT&C network will be more difficult. This project first analyzes the reliability of TT&C network with predicable structure, based on the simplified reliability model, truncation methods, and sampling methods. Next, the proposed project analyzes the network reliability with stochastic structure using Petri nets, and studies the influence of non-exponential repairable time to the network reliability. This project will further expand the scope of the current system-reliability research, and will also beneficial to the quantitative analysis of the TT&C network’s invulnerability and stability, having significant academic meanings and practical value.

航天测控网络是保障卫星与地面信息交互的重要技术支撑平台，该平台的可靠性水平直接影响卫星精确入轨、卫星状态监控等航天任务的成败。由于新型测控网的建设将采用相控阵天线与可替换设备，系统结构随机变化、规模庞大、设备可维修等特征将变得更加突出，这大大增加了测控网可靠性模型的复杂性及其求解难度。本课题通过研究大型可修多阶段任务系统的可靠性简约建模方法，基于截断方法与抽样方法精确评估结构周期变化的测控网络可靠性。在此基础上重点针对结构随机变化的大型测控网络，研究设备非指数维修时间、维修资源受限等问题对任务可靠性的影响，并设计基于Petri网的测控网任务可靠性分析方法，实现对测控系统任务保障能力的仿真评估。本课题对于进一步丰富和拓展系统可靠性理论与方法具有重要的理论意义，同时也为新一代测控网络抗毁性与稳定性评估提供了量化依据，具有很强的应用意义。

本课题针对航天测控系统结构多变、系统规模庞大、设备可维修等特点，研究可靠性模型的简约构建方法，构建规避计算量爆炸的可靠性求解算法，进一步丰富和拓展网络系统任务可靠性的理论方法研究，在中国人民解放军63769部队得到了实际应用，并已经投入工程型号项目建设，为增强我国航天测控网对在轨卫星的支持服务能力提供理论和技术支持。