中国干旱半干旱区生态系统碳源/汇的气候主控因子时空格局分析

Even though arid ecosystems are threatened by rapid climate change, the impacts of climate change and rising CO2 on carbon stock in arid and semi-arid regions of China have remained unclear due to large uncertainties in spatial climate datasets. This project aims to simulate and analyze the organic carbon stock and its spatial-temporal distributions in typical arid and semi-arid regions of China by the arid ecosystem models (AEM), which is developed specific for arid ecosystems from Dr. Zhang’s research team. Three sets of reanalysis data will be used to run the AEM model for a study period of the most significant climate change in recent 35 years (1983-2017) and the future years (2018-2100). In addition, the contribution of climate factors to carbon source / sink in typical arid and semiarid regions of China will be quantified through simulation experiments and sensitivity analysis, which will put forward reasonable countermeasures and scientific suggestions for maintaining the sustainable development of arid and semiarid regions.

干旱区生态系统受到气候快速变化的威胁，而气候变化和二氧化碳升高对中国干旱半干旱区生态系统有机碳库的贡献尚不明确。本项目拟以中国典型干旱半干旱区为研究区域，以气候变化最为显著的近35年（1983-2017）和未来（2018-2100）为研究时段，以团队自主研发的AEM干旱区生态系统模型，基于三套再分析气象驱动数据、现有的研究区域内的数据资料和研究成果，模拟和分析中国典型干旱半干旱区有机碳储量和时空分布。并通过多情景因子模拟实验与敏感性分析，量化各气候因子对中国典型干旱半干旱区碳源/汇的贡献，对维持干旱半干旱区生态系统可持续发展提出合理对策和科学性的建议。

本项目针对气候变化和二氧化碳升高对中国干旱半干旱区生态系统碳储量的贡献尚不明确的问题，在对国内外研究状况进行综合论述与分析基础上，开展了.中国干旱半干旱区有机碳储量和时空分布的研究，并通过多情景因子模拟实验与敏感性分析，量化各气候因子对中国干旱半干旱区碳源/汇的贡献，取得以下成果：.（1）比较了MERRA（Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications）、ERA-Interim（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts（ECMWF）Interim Re-Analysis）和CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）三套新一代高分辨率气象再分析数据在中国干旱半干旱区的适用性。.（2）对比分析MERRA、ERA-Interim和CFSR三套气象数据驱动下有机碳库及其时空特征分析，评估了中国干旱半干旱区生态系统碳储量及其对气候变化的响应。.（3）通过多情景因子分析与敏感性试验，量化气候变化对中国干旱半干旱区碳源/汇的贡献，分析了气候因子的影响过程，并对未来全球气候环境变迁的响应趋势进行预测， 提出了可持续发展的对策和建议。.本项目所提出的中国干旱半干旱区生态系统碳源/汇的气候主控因子时空格局分析达到了预期目标，获得了满意的结果。其成果对维持干旱半干旱区生态系统可持续发展提出合理对策和科学性的建议。