植被生态系统气候敏感带及其格局变化的时空分析模型

Changes of vegetation ecosystem hold major consequences of global environmental change, which directly impacts on biogeochemical cycling, soil erosion and ecological diversity, and affects the ability of biological systems to support human needs by altering ecosystem services. Especially, the vegetation ecosystem sensitivity zones, expected to be among the most sensitive areas to climate changes and human activities, have higher landscape level species richness than in adjacent biomes, which indicates that the ecological position of vegetation ecosystem sensitivity zones is prior to the adjacent biomes. Therefore, how to quantitatively identify and classify the different vegetation ecosystem sensitivity zones and highly explicit their spatial change and scenarios is very important to improving the adaptation strategies to mitigate or even benefit from the impact projected climate change. Focus on dealing with this issue, one the basis of comprehensively reviewing the international research progress, the quantitative models for identifying vegetation ecosystem sensitivity zones, classifying theirs spatial distribution, and analyzing theirs sensitivity to climate change will be respectively developed in this project. Changes and scenarios of vegetation ecosystem sensitivity zones to climate change will be simulated in this project based on the observed climate data from 752 weather stations in China and the simulate scenarios data simulated by different climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Furthermore, intelligent analysis model of vegetation ecosystem vulnerability will be developed in this project. Loss Plateau of China as a case study area, the vulnerability of vegetation ecosystem sensitivity zone will be quantitatively evaluated in this project. The aims of this project are respectively dealing with the issues of how to quantitatively identify the vegetation ecosystem sensitivity zones and evaluate the sensitivity and vulnerability of vegetation ecosystem to climate change, and providing the method and technique support for the comprehensive assessment of vegetation ecosystem response to global climate change.

植被生态系统气候敏感带是对气候变化和人类活动最为敏感的区域。如何定量分析植被生态系统气候敏感带的时空格局变化及其对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性是全球变化研究的核心问题之一。本项目拟在对国内外研究进展进行综合分析的基础上，运用地理信息系统建模方法，构建植被生态系统气候敏感带及其空间分布的定量识别模型和植被生态系统格局气候敏感性的定量分析模型，实现全国植被生态系统气候敏感带的分布格局及其敏感性的时空变化趋势和情景模拟。并引入基于ACO优化的SVM模型，以黄土高原为案例区，构建植被生态系统脆弱性的智能分析模型，实现黄土高原植被生态系统脆弱性的定量评估。本项目研究旨在通过对植被生态系统气候敏感带及其格局时空变化的模拟分析，为植被生态系统对全球气候变化响应的综合评估提供方法与技术支持。

针对如何定量分析植被生态系统气候敏感带的时空格局变化及其对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性的科学问题。本项目在对国内外研究进展进行综合分析的基础上，运用地理信息系统建模方法，构建了植被生态系统气候过渡带/敏感带的定量识，实现了全国植被生态系统气候敏感带的分布格局及其敏感性的时空变化趋势和情景模拟。并选择黄土高原、国家级自然保护区、西南喀斯特区域和黑河流域作为典型案例区，分别实现了黄土高原生态系统过渡带土地覆盖变化的敏感性分析、国家级自然保护区土地覆盖转换强度的模拟分析、西南喀斯特区域土地覆盖情景模拟及其对气候变化响应的敏感性分析和黑河流域植被类型对气候变化敏感性的模拟分析。本项目研究通过对植被生态系统气候敏感带及其格局时空变化的模拟分析及其相关研究方法与结论，可以为植被生态系统对全球气候变化响应的综合评估提供方法与技术支持。