区域水资源系统多元耦合变异时空格局及作用机理研究

Under the influence of climate change and human activities, it is clear that space-time variation happens on multiple factors of regional water resources system, the coupling relationships among system factors and system comprehensive characteristics. Studies on single element variation of hydrological process cannot reflect the coupling relationship, the evolution process of the comprehensive features, and the interaction mechanism of the regional water resources system. Therefore, in Guangdong province for typical study area, based on binary water cycle theory of water resources system analysis combined with multiple random distribution simulation, multiple regression simulation and timing-space variability recognization, this project is focused on developing multi-variable random distribution variability model and multi-variable regression variability model and creating system coupling variation indicators and system comprehensive features indicators. The spatiotemporal rules of multi-factor coupling variability on the hydrologic system and the socioeconomic system are discussed. The variability characteristics of coupling indicators and comprehensive features indicators of the regional water resources system are analyzed. The coupling variation pattern, the space-time structure and the interactions mechanism on the regional water resources system in South China are pointed out under environment change and rapid economic development. These results will be served for regional water resources assessment and planning, sustainable use and management decision in Guangdong province.

气候变化和人类活动影响下，区域水资源系统要素、要素之间的耦合关系及系统综合特征均可能发生时空上的变异。已有的水文水资源单要素变异研究，不能反映水资源系统多要素耦合和系统综合特征的演化过程，以及要素之间的相互作用机理。因此，本项目以广东省为典型研究区域，基于二元水循环理论的水资源系统分析，结合多元随机分布模拟、多元回归模拟、时序变异识别和空间变异识别的理论和方法，从研制多元随机分布变异模型、多元回归变异模型和筛选系统耦合指标及系统综合特征指标入手，探讨区域水文系统要素多元耦合分布、区域水资源量和区域用水量多元耦合回归的变异识别模式，以及区域水资源系统要素耦合指标和系统综合特征指标的时空变异规律，以揭示变化环境下中国南方湿润地区且经济快速发展地区，区域水源资源系统耦合变异规律、时空格局及要素之间相互作用机理，为区域水资源评价与规划、区域水资源可持续利用和管理决策提供科学依据。

围绕水文水资源要素的多个特征、多个水文水资源要素的联合特征和多个区域的水文水资源要素联合特征共三类研究对象，重点关注了多元随机联合分布模拟的理论模型假设检验、多维联合重现期设计、多变量耦合变异、随机样本截取的时间窗口、多个区域随机变量的空间结构、以及多变量耦合模拟与设计的不确定性等问题，形成了一套水文水资源多变量模拟与设计的理论框架和技术体系。探究了广东省东江流域径流年内分配过程、水文干旱、社会经济干旱，揭示了变化环境下中国南方湿润地区水文水资源系统多变量联合分布特征、多元耦合变异规律。探究了珠江三角洲西水东调工程和网河区多个流域径流组合特征，揭示了变化环境下多个区域水资源多维组合风险变化规律。探究了广东省深圳市雨潮遭遇联合分布特征，揭示了中国南方湿润区滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布规律及洪潮组合风险响应。探究了广东省农业子区灌溉需水空间组合特征，提出了分区灌溉需水空间布局的高维联合模拟与设计方法。最终开发了流域水文干旱及社会经济干旱多维联合模拟与设计系统、区域水资源联合风险评估系统、滨海城市洪潮遭遇组合风险评估系统和区域灌溉需水空间布局高维设计系统，为中国南方湿润地区的水文水资源多元统计模拟和设计提供理论依据，为经济社会快速发展地区的水安全提供技术保障。