基于结构方程模型的武警部队突发公共卫生事件应急能力评价研究

CAPF is confronted with more risk than public because of especial mission.Scientific and reasonable assessment system of public health emergency(PHE) is key point of preventting emergency response management capacity of our country. But the manifest variable and the latent variable which effecting emergency response management capacity and the relation between the variable is still unclear. We found structural equation model(SEM) can be employed to research the relation among management capacity factor. SEM can analyze quanificationally direct and indirect effect among variable by analyzing roundly the relation which effecting capacity among the latent variable and between the manifest variable and the latent variable. This study imagine to model specification by conceptual building technique and stakeholder analysis, to research evaluation dimensionality and relation of emergency response management capacity of CAPF for public PHE by model fitting, model assessment and model modification, to definite dimensionality and indication system of emergency response management capacity by Delphi method, focus group and structural interview, and developing a questionnaire by assessing the reliability and validity of the questionnaire, to evaluate emergency response management capacity of CAPF for PHE by questionnaire interview. This study will provide new theory and technique for emergency response management capacity evaluation, and develop new idea for organization capacity factor analysis and evaluation.

武警部队由于任务特殊，比普通公众面临更大突发公共卫生事件（PHE）的威胁，构建其科学合理的应对能力评价体系对我国防范突发PHE意义重大，但影响其应对能力的潜在变量和观测变量及其关系仍不清楚。我们发现结构方程模型可被用于分析能力因素间的关系。它通过全面透析影响能力的潜变量之间以及潜变量与显变量之间的相互关系，定量地阐明变量间的直接效应和间接效应。本项目设想利用概念建模、Stakeholder分析等方法提出理论假设，通过确定PHE应对能力结构方程初始模型、模型拟合、评价和修正研究武警部队PHE应对能力评价维度及其关系；采用德尔菲法、结构访谈法等方法确定PHE应对能力评价维度和指标体系，研制武警部队评价问卷及手册；采用问卷调查法对武警部队PHE应急能力进行现场评估。本项目为突发公共卫生事件应对能力评价提供新的理论和技术，并为组织能力因素分析与评价、指标体系构建提供新的思路。