含大规模风电的电力系统输电固定成本集成分摊方法研究

Due to the intermittent of wind power, large-scale wind power integration to power grids brings new challenges to equitable and reasonable allocation issues of transmission fixed cost. The objective of this project is to explore equitable and reasonable transmission fixed cost allocation methods for large-scale wind integrated power systems, which aims at the issues of wind power fluctuation, power system state variability, and customer benefit game in wind power integrated power grids, and with the integrated application of multi-scenario probability analysis, data envelopment analysis, and cooperative game theory. The main contents of this research are as follows. Firstly, from the research perspective of multi-scenario decision, analyze multi-scenario probability for uncertain information in wind integrated power systems (for example, wind power output). Secondly, from the research view of multi-criteria decision, with the transmission fixed cost related indicators in consideration, propose a transmission fixed cost allocation method based on data envelopment analysis. Finally, in the multi-criteria decision for transmission fixed cost allocation, with the benefit game among customers considered, propose a transmission fixed cost allocation method based on data envelopment analysis and cooperative game theory. Through the research of this project, the impact of wind power integration on transmission fixed cost allocation issues can be deeply revealed, effective methods for transmission fixed cost allocation with large-scale wind power integration can be provided, and a certain contribution can be made to the application of multi-scenario probability analysis, data envelopment analysis, and cooperative game theory to power systems.

由于风电的间歇性，大规模风电并网给电力系统输电固定成本的公平合理分摊带来了新的挑战。本项目针对大规模风电并网系统中风电场出力波动、系统状态多变、用户利益博弈等问题，集成应用多场景概率分析、数据包络分析、合作博弈论等方法，探索大规模风电并网系统输电固定成本的公平合理分摊方法。主要研究内容是：从多场景决策的角度，分析用于输电固定成本分摊的风电场出力等不确定信息的多场景概率；从多标准决策的角度，考虑输电固定成本相关指标，提出基于数据包络分析的输电固定成本分摊方法；在多标准决策输电固定成本分摊中，考虑用户之间的利益博弈关系，提出基于数据包络分析与合作博弈论的输电固定成本分摊方法。通过此项目的研究，可以深刻揭示大规模风电并网对输电固定成本分摊问题的影响，为大规模风电并网系统输电固定成本分摊提供有效方法，同时也为多场景概率分析、数据包络分析和合作博弈论在电力系统中的应用做出一定的贡献。

本项目对含大规模风电的电力系统输电固定成本分摊问题进行系统、全面的分析。针对大规模风电并网系统风电场出力和系统负荷波动、系统运行方式多变、电能质量降低、用户利益博弈等问题，从多场景决策、多标准决策、用户博弈的研究视角，集成应用多场景概率分析、数据包络分析、合作博弈论等方法，为大规模风电并网系统输电固定成本提供公平合理的分摊方法。主要研究成果为：1)从多场景决策角度考虑风电场出力和系统负荷波动问题，分析输电固定成本分摊中风电场出力等不确定信息的多场景概率。2)从多标准决策角度考虑输电固定成本多指标问题，研究基于数据包络分析的输电固定成本分摊方法。3)从合作博弈角度考虑用户利益博弈问题，研究基于数据包络分析与合作博弈论的输电固定成本分摊方法。通过此项目的研究，揭示大规模风电并网对输电固定成本分摊的影响，为大规模风电并网系统输电固定成本分摊提供有效方法，同时也为多场景概率分析、数据包络分析和合作博弈论在电力系统中的应用做出一定的贡献。研究成果对当前我国正在进行的大规模风电并网开发具有重要的理论和实践意义。发表或已录用论文10篇，参加国内和国际学术会议共11人次，指导硕士生5名，协助指导博士生1名。